2016 Presidential and Senate Predictions: November 7

November 7 2016: My original hope was to have predictions for all 50 states and interesting U.S. Senate races up by November 7.  Because of my lack of a working laptop, I wasn’t able to complete this, so I only completed battleground states and a few other states of interest (such as all three states I’ve lived in: California, Oklahoma, and Texas), as well as all the important Senate races.  Also, because I started this document on November 6, all the RCP polling numbers are from that date, though I doubt they would’ve changed much in the intervening day.

 

For the Presidential race: Clinton wins Colorado, Florida, Maine-2, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, and finishes with 308 electoral votes.

 

For the U.S. Senate races: Democrats hold Nevada and flip Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, for a gain of 6 seats and 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.

 

Alabama

 

No predictions

 

Alaska

 

No predictions

 

Arizona

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.3 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
As recently as last week, Clinton looked like she could win this state.  Arizona has early voting and there’s been lots of it, which to me means that Clinton can narrow the gap, but not close it all the way.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
John McCain: 49.5 percent John McCain: 52 percent John McCain:  percent
Ann Kirkpatrick: 39.5 percent Ann Kirkpatrick: 47 percent Ann Kirkpatrick:  percent
All others: 11 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
This is one of those races where Democrats smelled blood but ultimately the prey was too healthy and strong, and got away.  

 

Arkansas

 

No predictions
California

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 54.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 32.0 percent Donald Trump: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.7 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
I think at one point Trump said he could make California competitive?  Yeah right.  

 

Colorado

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.4 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.3 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Colorado was one of two states (along with Virginia) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump did take a small lead in the middle of the fall and quickly lost it, as Colorado returned to being a critical foothold in Clinton’s path to victory.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Michael Bennet: 48.2 percent Michael Bennet: 55 percent Michael Bennet:  percent
Darryl Glenn: 40.8 percent Darryl Glenn: 44 percent Darryl Glenn:  percent
All others: 11.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Much like in the Presidential race, this was one of those coulda-beens for the Republicans that just failed to materialize.  A big part of it was because no strong Republican candidates emerged.  

 

Connecticut

 

No predictions

 

Delaware

 

No predictions

 

District of Columbia

 

No predictions

 

Florida

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.6 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 46.4 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that screwed over Democrats in 2000 may well do the same for Republicans this year.  While Trump currently holds a very small lead, early voting and Clinton’s superior ground game will put her over the top.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Marco Rubio: 48.6 percent Marco Rubio: 51 percent Marco Rubio:  percent
Patrick Murphy: 45.4 percent Patrick Murphy: 48 percent Patrick Murphy:  percent
All others: 6.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Despite a glimmer of hope for Murphy late in the game, Rubio has led all cycle and can confidently predict a slim victory.  Murphy is my most despised Democratic Senate candidate this cycle and I am shedding no tears for his political demise.  

 

Georgia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.2 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 44.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 6.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Along with Arizona, Georgia is an emerging swing state that Clinton maybe could’ve grabbed this time, but ultimately probably won’t.  There’s been lots of early voting, and Clinton could benefit enough from it to put in a close finish.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Johnny Isakson: 50.4 percent Johnny Isakson: 54 percent Johnny Isakson:  percent
Jim Barksdale: 39.4 percent Jim Barksdale: 45 percent Jim Barksdale:  percent
All others: 10.2 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Isakson is already sitting right at 50 percent, and Trump is creating a sort of upward drag that’s keeping him there.  Barksdale would have to knock him out right in November because a January runoff (which could happen, though I’m not predicting it) wouldn’t see the kind of Democratic turnout Barksdale would need to win.  

 

Hawaii

 

No predictions

 

Idaho

 

No predictions

 

Illinois

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 49.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 58 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 37.5 percent Donald Trump: 40 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
A solid win for Clinton’s “home” state.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Tammy Duckworth: 48.0 percent Tammy Duckworth: 55 percent Hillary Clinton:
Mark Kirk: 34.7 percent Mark Kirk: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 17.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Kirk has been dead man walking all this cycle, and he’s still that way as he walks into Election Night.  This will be the easiest Democratic win tonight.  

 

Indiana

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.0 percent Donald Trump: 57 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that effectively gave Trump the Republican nomination will stay red and stick with him tonight.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Todd Young: 42.7 percent Evan Bayh: 50 percent Todd Young:  percent
Evan Bayh: 42.0 percent Todd Young: 49 percent Evan Bayh:  percent
All others: 15.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
When Bayh first got into the race, he made a big show of force: money!!  Poll numbers!!  Republicans weren’t so easily deterred, and they were right: what was once a safe Bayh win is now a tight Todd lead, but sparse polling makes it hard to say for sure.  My gut says that Bayh still manages to pull out a very narrow win, despite the headwinds he faces from Trump.  

 

Iowa

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 41.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Iowa has been the one battleground state that Trump has had his tentacles wrapped around all cycle, and he’ll probably finish with a modest win.  It is annoying that Clinton hasn’t been able to keep this farm-and-labor Midwestern state in the Democratic column, when I’m pretty sure a more populist Democrat like Bernie Sanders would’ve carried it comfortably.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Chuck Grassley: 56.3 percent Chuck Grassley: 58 percent Chuck Grassley:  percent
Patty Judge: 34.0 percent Patty Judge: 41 percent Patty Judge:  percent
All others: 9.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
There was some buzz that Judge could give Grassley the race of his career.  Instead, it looks like he’ll win by about 20 points instead of his usual 30.  

 

Kansas

 

No predictions

 

Kentucky

 

No predictions

 

Louisiana

 

No predictions

 

Maine

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 44.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 39.5 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.5 percent All others: 3 percent All others:
Maine is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district and Trump is leading in Maine’s rural, more conservative Second District, 41.5-41.0.  Trump has managed to keep things reasonably competitive here, but lacking a formidable ground game in a state that’s been largely ignored, I predict Trump will fall short in both ME-2 and in the state as a whole.  

 

Maryland

 

No predictions

 

Massachusetts

 

No predictions

 

Michigan

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.6 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Trump made a lot of noise and really tried to turn this long-time blue state red, but like so much else he says and does, it will mean nothing in the end.  Still, Trump did have reason to think he could be competitive in an industrial state that is getting sick of establishment corporatist Democrats like Clinton.  This is another one of those states that Bernie Sanders would have quickly taken off the table.  

 

Minnesota

 

No predictions

 

Mississippi

 

No predictions

 

Missouri

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.5 percent Donald Trump: 54 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 40.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Back in the heady days when Clinton looked like a sure winner, there was some murmuring that Clinton could maybe put this state into her expanded field of play.  But no, Trump gets a comfortable win here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Roy Blunt: 46.8 percent Jason Kander: 50 percent Roy Blunt:  percent
Jason Kander: 45.5 percent Roy Blunt: 49 percent Jason Kander:  percent
All others: 7.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Alright, I’m gonna go all out with this crazy prediction: Kander wins by a hair.  I’m calling it.  Kander has run the superior campaign that centers around his biography and personality rather than partisan alignments, and I think he can really overcome those Trumpian headwinds.  

 

Montana

 

No predictions

 

Nebraska

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 56 percent Donald Trump: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Nebraska is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district.  Clinton has made a play for Nebraska’s Second District, which includes the relatively friendly Omaha, but the one and only poll of that has Trump still leading there 49-40.  Clinton will not win NE-2 and she’ll get swamped statewide.  

 

Nevada

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
A late Trump surge has given him hope that this could be the state he uses to pierce Clinton’s firewall, but alas, according to the gods of early voting, it is not to be.  Early voting has been very favorable to Democrats and Trump may well have already lost this state before Election Day.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Catherine Cortez Masto: 46.7 percent Catherine Cortez Masto: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Joe Heck: 46.3 percent Joe Heck: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
What a reversal of fortune.  Heck was leading for a long ass time before a late Cortez Masto surge in the second half of October.  Now it’s effectively tied, but as Trump goes, so goes Heck.  The same early voting upward draft that carries Clinton to a small victory will do the same for Cortez Masto.  

 

New Hampshire

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.7 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that gave Trump his first win in the primaries might now be his best chance of piercing Clinton’s firewall, as he’s benefitted from a late surge here and there’s no pesky early voting like there is in Nevada.  But Clinton has retaken the lead in the last few polls, and it’s really hard for me to imagine Trump actually winning here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Kelly Ayotte: 47.1 percent Maggie Hassan: 50 percent Kelly Ayotte:  percent
Maggie Hassan: 45.6 percent Kelly Ayotte: 49 percent Maggie Hassan:  percent
All others: 7.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Ayotte’s and Hassan’s fortunes have been seemingly tied to Trump’s and Clinton’s.  While Ayotte has done a pretty good job of swimming against the tide of Trump, Clinton bombarded New Hampshire with attention in the closing week of the campaign.  This was a really hard race for me to call – it’s probably the closest Senate race in the nation – but in the end, I think that Clinton machine is going to deliver a very tiny win to Hassan.  

 

New Jersey

 

No predictions

 

New Mexico

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 5 percent All others:
Gary Johnson is polling at 9.3 percent, which accounts for the outsize All others percentage.  I think Johnson will still finish relatively strong here, but Clinton will carry the state comfortably.  

 

New York

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton: 60 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 34 percent Donald Trump: 38 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
So much for Trump’s vow to make his and Clinton’s shared home state competitive.  Solid blue state.  

 

North Carolina

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
North Carolina has early voting, but it hasn’t been favorable to the Democrats.  I would think that Clinton had a really good chance of flipping this state, especially with the changing demographics and all that.  In the end, Trump will still pull off a narrow win.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Richard Burr: 47.0 percent Richard Burr: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Deborah Ross: 45.0 percent Deborah Ross: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
This has been a pretty frustrating race for me to watch.  Aside from Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Ross is probably the most liberal Senate candidate in this cycle.  She did hold a small average lead at the end of September and she’s grabbed leads in polls here and there, but in the end, the rather complacent Burr will probably still squeeze into a tight win.  

 

North Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Ohio

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 45.8 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.9 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Along with Iowa, this has been Trump’s best battleground state the whole cycle, and like Iowa and Michigan, it has a lot of those blue collar industrial workers who would gravitate toward Trump over Clinton.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Rob Portman: 53.8 percent Rob Portman: 56 percent Rob Portman:  percent
Ted Strickland: 35.5 percent Ted Strickland: 43 percent Ted Strickland:  percent
All others: 10.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Strickland was a very promising, old school populist-type Democrat.  The Republicans annihilated his campaign early on.  It’s really sad to see how his campaign has dwindled this way.  Ohio really has not been kind to downballot Democrats as of late.  

 

Oklahoma

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 53 percent Donald Trump: 68 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 18 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
In my former state, I can’t see either Clinton or Libertarian Gary Johnson doing particularly well.  A big win for Trump.  

 

Oregon

 

No predictions

 

Pennsylvania

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.2 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 9.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Ah, the Keystone State – the state that Republicans always dump a ton of money into thinking they can win it, only to… not.  Pennsylvania has no early voting, so that kinda helps Trump, but in the end It’s still going to be the same Lucy-holds-the-football state that falls in line with the Democrats.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Katie McGinty: 45.0 percent Katie McGinty: 52 percent Katie McGinty:  percent
Pat Toomey: 43.0 percent Pat Toomey: 47 percent Pat Toomey:  percent
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Of all the “tossup” Senate races, this (and Wisconsin, I guess) has been the best for Democrats.  Toomey is as corporatist and pro-Wall Street as it gets, and his victory in 2010 was essentially a fluke, helped along by the Republican wave that year.  He’s been assiduously working to prop up a moderate image to ensure that his 2010 victory isn’t a fluke, but in the end, the Clinton/Democratic headwins will be too strong for him to overcome.  

 

Rhode Island

 

No predictions

 

South Carolina

 

No predictions

 

South Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Tennessee

 

No predictions

 

Texas

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 50.0 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Despite increasingly insistent murmurings that Clinton could win here, bolstered by a number of polls showing Trump’s lead in the low single digits, my own state of Texas is unlikely to be carried by anyone other than Trump.  I do think Clinton will post the best showing any Democrat’s seen here for a long time, largely because of Latino voters activated by Trump.  For the record, Green Party’s Jill Stein, whom I’m voting for, is currently polling at 2.0 percent, well below the 12.0 points separating Clinton from Trump.  

 

Utah

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 37.4 percent Donald Trump: 36 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 27.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 35.6 percent All others: 33 percent All others:
Why the massive 35.6 percent for All others?  Evan McMullin, the independent running as the traditional Republican, who’s hoping that a win of Utah’s 6 electoral votes will put him in the running for a decision that will be made in the House of Representatives.  McMullin accounts for 25.0 out of that 35.6 percent.  As much as I’m rooting for a McMullin win here because it would definitely make this election more exciting, sadly, McMullin has only led Trump in one survey, so it will still probably be a (close) Trump win.  

 

Vermont

 

No predictions

 

Virginia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 47.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.3 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Virginia was one of two states (along with Colorado) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump was never going to do well in this highly-educated state, and Clinton can easily count on it to help her win tonight.  

 

Washington

 

No predictions

 

West Virginia

 

No predictions

 

Wisconsin

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.8 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 45 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.9 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
There was massive rumbling earlier in the cycle that Trump, in his bid to make the industrial Midwest competitive, could put Wisconsin into play.  But come on, really?  I say no.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Russ Feingold: 47.0 percent Russ Feingold: 51 percent Russ Feingold:  percent
Ron Johnson: 44.3 percent Ron Johnson: 48 percent Ron Johnson:  percent
All others: 8.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Feingold is perhaps the most valuable candidate, in terms of his liberal-ness, running for Senate this cycle.  Meanwhile, Johnson was for this cycle what Rick Santorum was in 2006: an incumbent Republican who got in during a wave year who has since been too conservative for his light blue state and has lagged significantly behind his Democratic challenger the entire year.  Then the race unexpectedly narrowed in the last month and Democrats went into a panic.  I still say Feingold pulls off a win.  It will be narrower than one would have predicted a few months ago, but a win’s a win and I look forward to Feingold’s return to the Senate.  

 

Wyoming

 

No predictions

 

* No RCP average was available, so I put down the results of the most recent poll on RCP instead.

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