Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Won

Wow.

I haven’t been posting much about politics lately (haven’t had the time, energy, and spirit, really) but I have been following the elections, of course, especially the ones involving liberal and progressive candidates running in Democratic U.S. House and U.S. Senate primaries.  Just as in election cycles past, the road through this election season has been littered with the corpses of campaigns of promising liberals.  These liberals could have and should have been the future of the Democratic Party, but for a Democratic Party too centrist, too anti-government, too backwards-thinking, too dependent on corporate money, and too enthralled in corporate ideology to do the right thing and be the party of the people again.

To me, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was slated to be another sacrificial progressive lamb at the altar of the corporatists who still very much control and run the Democratic Party.  Especially since her particular would-be corporatist butcher was Representative Joseph Crowley, number 4 Democrat in the U.S. House and the undisputed mob boss of the Queens Democratic Party, who was outspending her 10-to-1.  Ocasio-Cortez was, in order of importance, very liberal, compassionate, earnest, dynamic, and – yes, I’ll say it, sue me – stunningly beautiful.  In a just world, she would be a big part of the future of the Democratic Party.  Instead, in this world, she would just show up as a minor bump in Crowley’s otherwise smooth renomination and reelection.  June 26 2018 would be yet another election night where I tune into the news to get my regular dose of electoral disappointment.  I would just check to make sure that all my favorite candidates went down in crushing defeats before I go to bed, where liberal victories at the polls and a truly liberal Democratic Party can actually exist in my dreams.

Then June 26 2018 actually happened.  I load up the news to find that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her race – and by a hefty 57-43.  This was easily the best political news I got since Bernie Sanders somehow overcame a 23-point polling deficit to win the 2016 Michigan Presidential primary.  Ocasio-Cortez wasn’t just one more liberal candidate who started way behind only to finish way behind.  She wasn’t yet another no-chance progressive I supported who would get her requisite 30-70 drubbing prior to a swift and orderly disposal into the dustbin of history.  I didn’t have to spend another Election Night completely defeated.  I was still mostly defeated, to be sure – Dylan Ratigan lost his primary, for instance – but not completely defeated.  Like a starving mouse clinging to a fortuitous bread crumb, just for once, I got to have one victory to celebrate.  Let me have this one.

Okay, because it’s me, I have to include the bad side – the reverse silver lining, if you will – involved with this otherwise exhilarating good news.  The media analysis right now is focusing a lot on the district being heavily Latino and choosing a Latina over a white person.  Ocasio-Cortez ran mainly on the issues but she did bring up her Puerto Rican heritage and the fact that her majority-minority district has never had a non-white Representative.  In my own state of Texas, Sema Hernandez, a liberal Latina Democrat running against Beto O’Rourke, carried most of the counties in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley.  I voted for Hernandez because she was the more liberal candidate, but I can’t help but think that voters in the Rio Grande Valley went with her based on her ethnicity rather than ideology or issues, and I can’t help but wonder if the same thing happened with Ocasio-Cortez.  Let me be clear: I do not want voters to vote primarily based on race or other non-substantive factors (like gender, which also could’ve helped Ocasio-Cortez), even if it so happens to help the candidate I’m supporting.  Ideology and issues come first and are far more important than whatever intangible feeling of “representation” voters may get from having someone of their own ethnicity in office.  How will liberals feel when a liberal white man loses a race to a more conservative person of color because of race or ethnicity?

That said, I’m elated that Ocasio-Cortez was able to win her race by running a strong campaign based on the idea of a government that truly represents and helps ordinary people.  This is especially important after years and years of watching just about every liberal candidate I supported lose – and usually very badly – in competitive primaries.  2018 wasn’t much different, until now.  Now, we have a victory that gives us a little crack of hope.  We liberals can run on a liberal message and liberal positions on the issues and win uphill battles.  And we need to do just that in a thousand other races if we’re going to take the Democratic Party back from the corporate elites and make our politics work for the people.

P.S. And then there were two: liberal candidate and Kenneth Huang endorsee Ben Jealous won his primary too.  I didn’t expect this one.  Jealous was slightly behind Rushern Baker in most of the recent polls and of course in this world we live in the progressive always loses.  Nope, not this one!  He’ll get to lose in the general election to unfortunately popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan, but for this night, let me have a second victory to celebrate.

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Life Update at 31

Last year, when I turned 30, I wrote a blog post about how old and sad I felt.  It was more for myself than anything else since I didn’t expect anyone to read it (and I’m not really expecting anyone to read this post either), but to my surprise I got a fair amount of feedback on Facebook.  I appreciated everyone’s concern and good intentions, but no one told me anything I hadn’t already heard before.  Really, there’s not much one can actually say in these kinds of situations to make anything better.

Since then, life has improved, if only just a little bit.  Old pests went away, only to be replaced by new pests.  My job got better before it got worse and then a little bit better again.  I have gone out and seen more of Austin over the past month, in this narrow band of time in the year when it’s not too hot and not too cold.  I’ve made a few trips to see other places outside of Austin as well.  I’m still poor and unmotivated and plagued by a bunch of life problems that probably wouldn’t be present if I weren’t poor and unmotivated.  Life still feels like a baseline of dull nothingness with some small pleasures here and there: seeing a good movie, eating a good dish, exploring a new place.  I think about my past less and less and some of it is starting to be forgotten, but the changes the past has left on me are still here to stay.

I’m 31 years old now and I’m resigned to being in a not good place for some time.  I’ve always had two selves in me and I’m stuck with the worse self for now.  A part of me wants to do better but vague desire doesn’t go far.  It’s not ambition, and I don’t have the will in me to act on it, especially not when I’m still treading water trying to keep my life together.  I hate thinking about or hearing about possible plans for my future, because I know it’s just more difficulty and stress for possibly nothing.  The most I can do right now is try to make my life a little bit better day by day so that I can keep improving down the road.  Maybe one day I’ll reach a point where I have enough stability in my life that I can set my sights higher.  But if nothing else, over the past two years I’ve learned how hard life can be, in a way that I never knew before, and not just for me, but for lots of other people in similar economic and financial and social and mental situations as I am.

90th Academy Awards: Predictions and Choices

I watched every nominee for the Academy Award for Best Picture prior to the ceremony, which is today, March 4 2018.  Here are my preferences, predictions and comments for the top eight categories in a table format.  I’ll put the movies and performances I haven’t seen at the bottom, separate from the actual rankings.

 

Best Picture

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Call Me by Your Name The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Darkest Hour Lady Bird
Dunkirk Darkest Hour
Get Out Dunkirk
Lady Bird Get Out
Phantom Thread Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water Phantom Thread
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Post
To me, what really distinguished this year’s field for Best Picture was how they were all so… decent.  In recent years, there have been usually a few movies that I really disliked and a few that I thought really stood out.  In this year’s field, all the movies are pretty good – even my lowest-ranked The Post – but none of them really blew me away either.  That means that even though I can produce a relative ranking among the nominees (if just barely), in terms of quality they’re all pretty much clustered together.  The Shape of Water is my top pick by default, because it was slightly more enjoyable than the rest.

For the ranking, I knew which ones I wanted as my top two and which ones I wanted as my bottom three.  The hardest part was figuring out how to rank the middle four – Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – and in particular, whether to place the two World War II movies Darkest Hour and Dunkirk above or below Get Out and Three Billboards.  In the end, I decided the two World War II movies were more weighty so I put them ever so slightly ahead.

The Best Picture contest is mostly down to Three Billboards holding a small edge over The Shape of Water, with Get Out hanging in the wings to exploit a possible split in the voting.  Lady Bird and Dunkirk have small outside chances as well.  I really don’t want Three Billboards or Get Out to win so I’m hoping one of the other three will prevail.

 

Best Director

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread Jordan Peele for Get Out Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele for Get Out Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
While I liked Lady Bird, the movie’s direction wasn’t particularly noteworthy to me.  The rest of the nominees are fine examples of great directing.  In particular, Get Out might be one of the most tightly-crafted movies I’ve seen in recent years, which somewhat made up for its iffy plot.  I thought Guillermo del Toro also did really well in The Shape of Water but in the end I have to give it to Jordan Peele by a hair, even though Get Out itself was nowhere near being my favorite among the nominees.  In any case, my very close second choice Del Toro is slated to win, with Christopher Nolan, one of my favorite directors, having an outside chance.

 

Best Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Timothée Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out Timothée Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out
Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq. [[[ Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq. (haven’t seen) ]]]
Yes yes, we all knew as soon as we saw the first trailers for Darkest Hour that this would be the year Gary Oldman easily wins his long-overdue Oscar.  And I would agree with that choice.  But it’s funny: as I was watching Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, I was thinking, this guy is good… this guy is really good.  If there was any performer who could upset Oldman, it’d of course be Day-Lewis.  That said, while Day-Lewis is at the very least a very close second and arguably as good as or better than Oldman, I still say give it to Oldman for the way he was able to just melt into the role of Winston Churchill.  Besides, I don’t want Day-Lewis to win another Oscar because I want it to remain that only one actor has ever won four acting Oscars (brownie points if you know who it is!).  There’s been a lot of buzz around Timothée Chalamet as having an outside chance of winning but I don’t get it; Chalamet did fine in Call Me by Your Name but he didn’t seem to be particularly exceptional, and if any performance is going to beat Oldman’s it would be Day-Lewis’s.  I don’t know why Daniel Kaluuya was nominated; he did a fine job in Get Out but again, nothing terribly exceptional.

 

Best Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep for The Post Meryl Streep for The Post
One positive development is that, compared to recent years, this year’s Best Actress field is quite strong.  I can’t say there’s an unworthy performance among these five – yes, not even that of Meryl Streep, who I have repeatedly maligned as being overrated and nominated out of routine rather than merit.  She was actually quite good in The Post.  Still, I’m gonna put her last anyway just because of how good the rest of the field is.  In a just world, Sally Hawkins would win – her performance was so captivating and it just blew me away.  I’m largely unfamiliar with her previous work but she’s made me a new fan of hers.  The middle three are tough to rank because they’re all so close and all so good!  At the same time, I feel like each of their characters are largely one-note: outwardly crude and angry with only fleeting hints of underlying vulnerability.

By the way, I think this is the first time in years that I’ve seen all five Best Actress performances prior to the ceremony.  That’s in large part due to the fact that four out of five of these performances are from Best Picture nominees.  That’s a sign of how strong this year’s field is.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World [[[ Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project (haven’t seen) ]]]
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri [[[ Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World (haven’t seen) ]]]
Eh, this is a weak field.  The frontrunner Sam Rockwell is my top pick but largely by default, as the other two that I’ve actually seen were not particularly exceptional.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Mary J. Blige for Mudbound Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Allison Janney for I, Tonya Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water
Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water [[[Mary J. Blige for Mudbound (haven’t seen) ]]]
Octavia Spencer is a great actress, but I feel like she’s becoming the Meryl Streep of the Supporting Actress category – someone who’s being nominated for good but not great performances out of routine because there’s no one else to fill that slot.  And she’s always playing the same basic character – a sassy woman from the 1960s!

For the top spot, it’s a battle between two actresses who both played angry mothers who mistreated their daughters in their respective movies.  Frontrunner Allison Janney was very good but I’m giving the edge to Laurie Metcalf because I think her performance was more nuanced and layered.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
The Big Sick The Shape of Water Get Out
Get Out Lady Bird
Lady Bird The Big Sick
The Shape of Water Get Out
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Off the top of my head this is the first time in a while that I’ve seen all the Original Screenplay nominees – four out of five being Best Picture nominees as well – prior to the ceremony, so that’s a good sign.  The Shape of Water and Lady Bird easily stand out in this field; the other nominees weren’t that great in terms of story, plot, or dialogue.  In terms of the race, Get Out is currently in the lead but Three Billboards isn’t too far behind.  That’s too bad, seeing as how those are my two lowest-ranked ones.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Call Me by Your Name The Disaster Artist Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist Logan
Logan Call Me by Your Name
Molly’s Game [[[ Molly’s Game (haven’t seen) ]]]
Mudbound [[[ Mudbound (haven’t seen) ]]]
Oh this one easily goes to The Disaster Artist.  I don’t even have to think about this one.  In fact I think The Disaster Artist is better than many of the Best Picture nominees.  But Call Me by Your Name is slated to win easily.

 

My Thoughts on Turning 30

Today I turned 30 years old.  Yay?  NO.

Looking back on the twenties that I just departed, I see that I’ve changed so much – some for the better, more for the worse.  When I turned 20 in 2007, I wasn’t exactly riding high, but life was looking promising.  I had a direction, I had a goal, and I had reasonable confidence that I would eventually make it there.  Now, ten years later, I feel like I’ve seen so much, done so much, and fell so far.  I’m the total opposite of what I was at 20.  I’m 30 and I’ve been told I look like I’m 22 or 23, but inside I feel like I’m 60 – worn, weary, and bitter from what has been a brutal decade.  A decade that I feel was largely wasted on battling against myself and constantly learning lessons the hard way.

I’ve been meaning to blog about what’s happened in the last year, this last mostly-horrible year of my twenties, and how my new life has been going.  I haven’t had the time.  I barely have the time right now, which is why the quality of this writing probably isn’t up to par.  I’ll hopefully write more later, but suffice to say, my life for the past year – really, for the past several years but especially this past year – has been mostly miserable, punctuated by occasional moments of blissful happiness when I somehow manage to escape and forget the pain of my regular life, until I’m brought back down to earth and have to go back to it.  Every day feels like yet another round of trudging through a cycle of regret, longing, and confusion.  I was at work today and the enormity of turning 30 and being so damn old already and having wasted most of the past ten years hit me hard.  I just wanted to collapse on the ground, and in fact I nearly did so.

I normally like to do special trips for my birthday and other occasions but my life has turned so bad that I’ve lost much of my previously held enthusiasm for doing so.  I originally was going to go to Dallas for this birthday but I changed my mind because my life has too many problems right now. (I’m planning on going in a few weeks instead.) This has been a pretty miserable and meh-whatever birthday so far – I got a few hours of sleep, spent a few more hours catching up on a week’s worth of emails that I haven’t had the time to get to, and all around I feel like crap.

This isn’t an auspicious start to a new decade.  I guess I’ll post again in 2027 and offer another short and hasty retrospection of the preceding ten years.  I wish I could say it’ll be much happier than this one, but I’m really not expecting it.  My thirty years of life so far have not turned out anywhere near what I ever hoped for.

89th Academy Awards: Predictions and Choices

As I do every year now, I made sure to watch every nominee for Best Picture prior to the ceremony, which is today, February 26 2017.  It was a more difficult lift than usual given my late start (I didn’t really begin in earnest until late January, just a few days before the nominees were announced) and the fact that an unusually high number of nominees were already mostly out of theaters.

 

A note on the movie theaters where I saw the nominees: Because I was largely unable to leave Austin during this time, I leaned heavily on Alamo Drafthouse Cinema locations to get through the movies.  Of the nine Best Picture nominees, only two – Lion and Hidden Figures, the first and last ones I watched respectively – were not seen at an Alamo Drafthouse.  Lion was the only movie I didn’t see in Austin period; I saw it at the Embarcadero Center Cinema in San Francisco when I was visiting there in January.  I saw Hidden Figures at Violet Crown Cinema in downtown Austin.  Of the remaining seven that I saw at an Alamo Drafthouse, I saw one (Moonlight) at the Village location, one (Hell or High Water) at the Slaughter Lane location, two (Manchester by the Sea and Arrival) at the South Lamar location, and three (La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, and Fences) at the Lakeline location.  Since the Lakeline location got the most movies, I decided that I’d watch the Oscars there tonight.

 

I’ll put my predictions and preferences for the top eight categories in a table format.  I’ll put the movies and performances I haven’t seen at the bottom, separate from the actual rankings.

 

Best Picture

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Arrival La La Land La La Land
Fences Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Fences
Hell or High Water Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures Manchester by the Sea
La La Land Moonlight
Lion Hidden Figures
Manchester by the Sea Hacksaw Ridge
Moonlight Lion
Comments: This race has largely been a battle between La La Land and Moonlight.  Between those two I pick La La Land easily, and out of all the nominees it was a hard choice between La La Land and Arrival, but in the end I give it to La La Land by a hair.  La La Land is currently the solid favorite to win the prize.  I’m surprised Hell or High Water was nominated, but in a good way – I thought it was released too early in the year and didn’t generate enough buzz to keep it from being overlooked.  I really don’t see why Hacksaw Ridge and Lion were even nominated; to me they were meh average-type films.  Hidden Figures was also a largely okay movie on the merits; I wonder if its nomination was propelled by its racism/sexism-based subject matter.

 

Best Director

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Denis Villeneuve for Arrival Damien Chazelle for La La Land Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Damien Chazelle for La La Land Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
Comments: There were a ton of fantastically well-directed movies this year, and any one of these men deserve the prize.  Chazelle’s direction in La La Land was masterful and very much worthy of the win.  Villeneuve’s handling of Arrival was stunningly excellent as well.  Despite not being a big fan of the movies overall, Hacksaw Ridge and Moonlight were both well-directed, which is why I put their directors ahead of Lonergan, who did a great job himself but not quite up to what the rest of the nominees put out.  The race is once again largely a La La Land versus Moonlight battle, and once again La La Land is ahead.

 

Best Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea Denzel Washington for Fences Denzel Washington for Fences
Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling for La La Land Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Denzel Washington for Fences Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic (haven’t seen)
Comments: This race has been a battle between Washington and Affleck, with Washington having the slight lead.  Incidentally, this reflects my own personal feelings as well.  Washington and Affleck both did fantastic jobs in their roles, and I say this as someone who thinks Washington is often overrated.  In the end I give it to Washington by a small edge.  Garfield did a good job, but not enough to top the others.  Gosling was whatever; I don’t know if he should’ve even been nominated.

 

Best Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Isabelle Huppert for Elle No preference (aside from not wanting Meryl Streep to win) Emma Stone for La La Land
Ruth Negga for Loving
Natalie Portman for Jackie
Emma Stone for La La Land
Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins
Comments: The current favorite is Stone, though there’s some rumbling that either Huppert or Portman could swoop in and nab the prize.  I have not seen any of these performances aside from Stone’s, and I wasn’t really impressed with Stone’s anyway, so I did not rank them or state any preference, aside from being Anyone But Streep.  No, I haven’t seen Florence Foster Jenkins but I don’t care – Streep is the most overrated actress of our time (her Best Actress win for The Iron Lady was an outrage) and I don’t want her being nominated for any more Oscars, let alone winning them.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea
Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Dev Patel for Lion Dev Patel for Lion
Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals (haven’t seen)
Comments: Let me start out by saying that, just as is the case with the movie he’s in, I have no idea why Patel is in Oscars contention.  His performance was… whatever.  I mean he wasn’t dumbly gaping at the screen with his mouth slightly ajar the whole time like he was in Slumdog Millionaire, so I guess there’s some improvement.  But… really?  And if he’s going to be up for an Oscar, why in the Supporting Actor category?  He’s in the movie for at least half the time and usually the adult actors are the ones who are considered the Lead.  Moving on… Ali was good though I think his performance is overrated.  So in the end it was a battle between the two “-dges”: Bridges versus Hedges.  Both were very good and Hedges in particular surprised me with his bold and layered performance.  But Bridges really stole the show in his movie and I had to give it to him by a hair.  The race is largely Ali’s to lose, though there’s an outside chance that Patel (ugh, why!) could win.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Viola Davis for Fences Viola Davis for Fences Viola Davis for Fences
Naomie Harris for Moonlight Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures Nicole Kidman for Lion
Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Comments: The top and bottom of this pack were easy.  For the top, easiest pick ever: Davis.  Her performance blows most I’ve seen in any movie this past year out of the water.  In fact, the biggest outrage is that she’s even in the Supporting category when she should’ve been Lead – she’s in the movie something like 80 percent of the time.  For the bottom: Kidman and Spencer.  Call it the Lion Syndrome: this phenomenon where a decently okay movie somehow gets Oscar nominations out of nowhere.  Kidman is barely in the movie and she has like one scene where she’s sick so she croaks to her son in a weak voice.  Spencer’s performance was even more whatever – she did fine, but her character, and the resulting performance, was pretty generic.  In fact, I feel like I’ve seen Spencer give basically the same performance in one or two of her other roles before.  That left Harris and Williams to battle it out for the middle spots, and in the end, even though I’m a big Williams fan, I gave a slight edge to Harris, in large part because Harris just has more screen time and more material to work with.  It doesn’t matter though – Davis has a solid lock on this category, and it’s very well-deserved.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Hell or High Water La La Land La La Land
La La Land Hell or High Water
The Lobster Manchester by the Sea
Manchester by the Sea The Lobster
20th Century Women 20th Century Women (haven’t seen)
Comments: This seems to be a hotly contested race between La La Land and Manchester by the SeaLa La Land looks set to win in a bunch of categories so that could portend a win here too, or maybe voters will pick Manchester just to give non-La La Land movies a few crumbs.  I’ll go with La La Land as my prediction for the winner, but it could really go either way.  While I do like La La Land’s script, I’m also partial to Hell or High WaterManchester was decent and it had its moments.  In the end I had to rank it above The Lobster, which I did not think had an impressive script.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest My predicted winner
Arrival Arrival Moonlight
Fences Fences
Hidden Figures Hidden Figures
Lion Lion
Moonlight Moonlight
Comments: Look at that – the alphabetical order is the same as my personal preference order!  Total coincidence, of course.  Moonlight has been playing second fiddle to La La Land for most of this awards season, so of course for the one category where they’re not facing each other Moonlight gets to really shine and become the solid favorite for the win.  That’s not to my liking – as someone who thought it was fine but not great, I didn’t think Moonlight’s screenplay was one of its strengths.  Plus, it was easy for me to choose Arrival as my top pick – one of the smartest and most mature scripts I’ve ever seen.  Fences was also pretty good – though eclipsed by Arrival – and Hidden Figures, despite being another good-but-not-great movie overall, did keep things interesting, even if its script wandered into gaggingly clichéd territory at times.  My bewilderment at Lion’s award success continues here, as its script really is as average as the movie itself.  Even so, it’s still better than Moonlight’s – which is the one that will end up winning the award, how’s that.

 

2016 Presidential and Senate Predictions: November 7

November 7 2016: My original hope was to have predictions for all 50 states and interesting U.S. Senate races up by November 7.  Because of my lack of a working laptop, I wasn’t able to complete this, so I only completed battleground states and a few other states of interest (such as all three states I’ve lived in: California, Oklahoma, and Texas), as well as all the important Senate races.  Also, because I started this document on November 6, all the RCP polling numbers are from that date, though I doubt they would’ve changed much in the intervening day.

 

For the Presidential race: Clinton wins Colorado, Florida, Maine-2, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, and finishes with 308 electoral votes.

 

For the U.S. Senate races: Democrats hold Nevada and flip Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, for a gain of 6 seats and 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.

 

Alabama

 

No predictions

 

Alaska

 

No predictions

 

Arizona

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.3 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
As recently as last week, Clinton looked like she could win this state.  Arizona has early voting and there’s been lots of it, which to me means that Clinton can narrow the gap, but not close it all the way.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
John McCain: 49.5 percent John McCain: 52 percent John McCain:  percent
Ann Kirkpatrick: 39.5 percent Ann Kirkpatrick: 47 percent Ann Kirkpatrick:  percent
All others: 11 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
This is one of those races where Democrats smelled blood but ultimately the prey was too healthy and strong, and got away.  

 

Arkansas

 

No predictions
California

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 54.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 32.0 percent Donald Trump: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.7 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
I think at one point Trump said he could make California competitive?  Yeah right.  

 

Colorado

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.4 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.3 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Colorado was one of two states (along with Virginia) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump did take a small lead in the middle of the fall and quickly lost it, as Colorado returned to being a critical foothold in Clinton’s path to victory.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Michael Bennet: 48.2 percent Michael Bennet: 55 percent Michael Bennet:  percent
Darryl Glenn: 40.8 percent Darryl Glenn: 44 percent Darryl Glenn:  percent
All others: 11.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Much like in the Presidential race, this was one of those coulda-beens for the Republicans that just failed to materialize.  A big part of it was because no strong Republican candidates emerged.  

 

Connecticut

 

No predictions

 

Delaware

 

No predictions

 

District of Columbia

 

No predictions

 

Florida

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.6 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 46.4 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that screwed over Democrats in 2000 may well do the same for Republicans this year.  While Trump currently holds a very small lead, early voting and Clinton’s superior ground game will put her over the top.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Marco Rubio: 48.6 percent Marco Rubio: 51 percent Marco Rubio:  percent
Patrick Murphy: 45.4 percent Patrick Murphy: 48 percent Patrick Murphy:  percent
All others: 6.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Despite a glimmer of hope for Murphy late in the game, Rubio has led all cycle and can confidently predict a slim victory.  Murphy is my most despised Democratic Senate candidate this cycle and I am shedding no tears for his political demise.  

 

Georgia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.2 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 44.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 6.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Along with Arizona, Georgia is an emerging swing state that Clinton maybe could’ve grabbed this time, but ultimately probably won’t.  There’s been lots of early voting, and Clinton could benefit enough from it to put in a close finish.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Johnny Isakson: 50.4 percent Johnny Isakson: 54 percent Johnny Isakson:  percent
Jim Barksdale: 39.4 percent Jim Barksdale: 45 percent Jim Barksdale:  percent
All others: 10.2 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Isakson is already sitting right at 50 percent, and Trump is creating a sort of upward drag that’s keeping him there.  Barksdale would have to knock him out right in November because a January runoff (which could happen, though I’m not predicting it) wouldn’t see the kind of Democratic turnout Barksdale would need to win.  

 

Hawaii

 

No predictions

 

Idaho

 

No predictions

 

Illinois

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 49.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 58 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 37.5 percent Donald Trump: 40 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
A solid win for Clinton’s “home” state.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Tammy Duckworth: 48.0 percent Tammy Duckworth: 55 percent Hillary Clinton:
Mark Kirk: 34.7 percent Mark Kirk: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 17.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Kirk has been dead man walking all this cycle, and he’s still that way as he walks into Election Night.  This will be the easiest Democratic win tonight.  

 

Indiana

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.0 percent Donald Trump: 57 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that effectively gave Trump the Republican nomination will stay red and stick with him tonight.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Todd Young: 42.7 percent Evan Bayh: 50 percent Todd Young:  percent
Evan Bayh: 42.0 percent Todd Young: 49 percent Evan Bayh:  percent
All others: 15.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
When Bayh first got into the race, he made a big show of force: money!!  Poll numbers!!  Republicans weren’t so easily deterred, and they were right: what was once a safe Bayh win is now a tight Todd lead, but sparse polling makes it hard to say for sure.  My gut says that Bayh still manages to pull out a very narrow win, despite the headwinds he faces from Trump.  

 

Iowa

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 41.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Iowa has been the one battleground state that Trump has had his tentacles wrapped around all cycle, and he’ll probably finish with a modest win.  It is annoying that Clinton hasn’t been able to keep this farm-and-labor Midwestern state in the Democratic column, when I’m pretty sure a more populist Democrat like Bernie Sanders would’ve carried it comfortably.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Chuck Grassley: 56.3 percent Chuck Grassley: 58 percent Chuck Grassley:  percent
Patty Judge: 34.0 percent Patty Judge: 41 percent Patty Judge:  percent
All others: 9.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
There was some buzz that Judge could give Grassley the race of his career.  Instead, it looks like he’ll win by about 20 points instead of his usual 30.  

 

Kansas

 

No predictions

 

Kentucky

 

No predictions

 

Louisiana

 

No predictions

 

Maine

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 44.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 39.5 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.5 percent All others: 3 percent All others:
Maine is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district and Trump is leading in Maine’s rural, more conservative Second District, 41.5-41.0.  Trump has managed to keep things reasonably competitive here, but lacking a formidable ground game in a state that’s been largely ignored, I predict Trump will fall short in both ME-2 and in the state as a whole.  

 

Maryland

 

No predictions

 

Massachusetts

 

No predictions

 

Michigan

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.6 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Trump made a lot of noise and really tried to turn this long-time blue state red, but like so much else he says and does, it will mean nothing in the end.  Still, Trump did have reason to think he could be competitive in an industrial state that is getting sick of establishment corporatist Democrats like Clinton.  This is another one of those states that Bernie Sanders would have quickly taken off the table.  

 

Minnesota

 

No predictions

 

Mississippi

 

No predictions

 

Missouri

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.5 percent Donald Trump: 54 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 40.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Back in the heady days when Clinton looked like a sure winner, there was some murmuring that Clinton could maybe put this state into her expanded field of play.  But no, Trump gets a comfortable win here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Roy Blunt: 46.8 percent Jason Kander: 50 percent Roy Blunt:  percent
Jason Kander: 45.5 percent Roy Blunt: 49 percent Jason Kander:  percent
All others: 7.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Alright, I’m gonna go all out with this crazy prediction: Kander wins by a hair.  I’m calling it.  Kander has run the superior campaign that centers around his biography and personality rather than partisan alignments, and I think he can really overcome those Trumpian headwinds.  

 

Montana

 

No predictions

 

Nebraska

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 56 percent Donald Trump: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Nebraska is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district.  Clinton has made a play for Nebraska’s Second District, which includes the relatively friendly Omaha, but the one and only poll of that has Trump still leading there 49-40.  Clinton will not win NE-2 and she’ll get swamped statewide.  

 

Nevada

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
A late Trump surge has given him hope that this could be the state he uses to pierce Clinton’s firewall, but alas, according to the gods of early voting, it is not to be.  Early voting has been very favorable to Democrats and Trump may well have already lost this state before Election Day.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Catherine Cortez Masto: 46.7 percent Catherine Cortez Masto: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Joe Heck: 46.3 percent Joe Heck: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
What a reversal of fortune.  Heck was leading for a long ass time before a late Cortez Masto surge in the second half of October.  Now it’s effectively tied, but as Trump goes, so goes Heck.  The same early voting upward draft that carries Clinton to a small victory will do the same for Cortez Masto.  

 

New Hampshire

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.7 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that gave Trump his first win in the primaries might now be his best chance of piercing Clinton’s firewall, as he’s benefitted from a late surge here and there’s no pesky early voting like there is in Nevada.  But Clinton has retaken the lead in the last few polls, and it’s really hard for me to imagine Trump actually winning here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Kelly Ayotte: 47.1 percent Maggie Hassan: 50 percent Kelly Ayotte:  percent
Maggie Hassan: 45.6 percent Kelly Ayotte: 49 percent Maggie Hassan:  percent
All others: 7.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Ayotte’s and Hassan’s fortunes have been seemingly tied to Trump’s and Clinton’s.  While Ayotte has done a pretty good job of swimming against the tide of Trump, Clinton bombarded New Hampshire with attention in the closing week of the campaign.  This was a really hard race for me to call – it’s probably the closest Senate race in the nation – but in the end, I think that Clinton machine is going to deliver a very tiny win to Hassan.  

 

New Jersey

 

No predictions

 

New Mexico

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 5 percent All others:
Gary Johnson is polling at 9.3 percent, which accounts for the outsize All others percentage.  I think Johnson will still finish relatively strong here, but Clinton will carry the state comfortably.  

 

New York

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton: 60 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 34 percent Donald Trump: 38 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
So much for Trump’s vow to make his and Clinton’s shared home state competitive.  Solid blue state.  

 

North Carolina

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
North Carolina has early voting, but it hasn’t been favorable to the Democrats.  I would think that Clinton had a really good chance of flipping this state, especially with the changing demographics and all that.  In the end, Trump will still pull off a narrow win.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Richard Burr: 47.0 percent Richard Burr: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Deborah Ross: 45.0 percent Deborah Ross: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
This has been a pretty frustrating race for me to watch.  Aside from Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Ross is probably the most liberal Senate candidate in this cycle.  She did hold a small average lead at the end of September and she’s grabbed leads in polls here and there, but in the end, the rather complacent Burr will probably still squeeze into a tight win.  

 

North Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Ohio

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 45.8 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.9 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Along with Iowa, this has been Trump’s best battleground state the whole cycle, and like Iowa and Michigan, it has a lot of those blue collar industrial workers who would gravitate toward Trump over Clinton.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Rob Portman: 53.8 percent Rob Portman: 56 percent Rob Portman:  percent
Ted Strickland: 35.5 percent Ted Strickland: 43 percent Ted Strickland:  percent
All others: 10.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Strickland was a very promising, old school populist-type Democrat.  The Republicans annihilated his campaign early on.  It’s really sad to see how his campaign has dwindled this way.  Ohio really has not been kind to downballot Democrats as of late.  

 

Oklahoma

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 53 percent Donald Trump: 68 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 18 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
In my former state, I can’t see either Clinton or Libertarian Gary Johnson doing particularly well.  A big win for Trump.  

 

Oregon

 

No predictions

 

Pennsylvania

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.2 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 9.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Ah, the Keystone State – the state that Republicans always dump a ton of money into thinking they can win it, only to… not.  Pennsylvania has no early voting, so that kinda helps Trump, but in the end It’s still going to be the same Lucy-holds-the-football state that falls in line with the Democrats.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Katie McGinty: 45.0 percent Katie McGinty: 52 percent Katie McGinty:  percent
Pat Toomey: 43.0 percent Pat Toomey: 47 percent Pat Toomey:  percent
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Of all the “tossup” Senate races, this (and Wisconsin, I guess) has been the best for Democrats.  Toomey is as corporatist and pro-Wall Street as it gets, and his victory in 2010 was essentially a fluke, helped along by the Republican wave that year.  He’s been assiduously working to prop up a moderate image to ensure that his 2010 victory isn’t a fluke, but in the end, the Clinton/Democratic headwins will be too strong for him to overcome.  

 

Rhode Island

 

No predictions

 

South Carolina

 

No predictions

 

South Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Tennessee

 

No predictions

 

Texas

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 50.0 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Despite increasingly insistent murmurings that Clinton could win here, bolstered by a number of polls showing Trump’s lead in the low single digits, my own state of Texas is unlikely to be carried by anyone other than Trump.  I do think Clinton will post the best showing any Democrat’s seen here for a long time, largely because of Latino voters activated by Trump.  For the record, Green Party’s Jill Stein, whom I’m voting for, is currently polling at 2.0 percent, well below the 12.0 points separating Clinton from Trump.  

 

Utah

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 37.4 percent Donald Trump: 36 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 27.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 35.6 percent All others: 33 percent All others:
Why the massive 35.6 percent for All others?  Evan McMullin, the independent running as the traditional Republican, who’s hoping that a win of Utah’s 6 electoral votes will put him in the running for a decision that will be made in the House of Representatives.  McMullin accounts for 25.0 out of that 35.6 percent.  As much as I’m rooting for a McMullin win here because it would definitely make this election more exciting, sadly, McMullin has only led Trump in one survey, so it will still probably be a (close) Trump win.  

 

Vermont

 

No predictions

 

Virginia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 47.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.3 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Virginia was one of two states (along with Colorado) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump was never going to do well in this highly-educated state, and Clinton can easily count on it to help her win tonight.  

 

Washington

 

No predictions

 

West Virginia

 

No predictions

 

Wisconsin

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.8 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 45 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.9 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
There was massive rumbling earlier in the cycle that Trump, in his bid to make the industrial Midwest competitive, could put Wisconsin into play.  But come on, really?  I say no.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Russ Feingold: 47.0 percent Russ Feingold: 51 percent Russ Feingold:  percent
Ron Johnson: 44.3 percent Ron Johnson: 48 percent Ron Johnson:  percent
All others: 8.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Feingold is perhaps the most valuable candidate, in terms of his liberal-ness, running for Senate this cycle.  Meanwhile, Johnson was for this cycle what Rick Santorum was in 2006: an incumbent Republican who got in during a wave year who has since been too conservative for his light blue state and has lagged significantly behind his Democratic challenger the entire year.  Then the race unexpectedly narrowed in the last month and Democrats went into a panic.  I still say Feingold pulls off a win.  It will be narrower than one would have predicted a few months ago, but a win’s a win and I look forward to Feingold’s return to the Senate.  

 

Wyoming

 

No predictions

 

* No RCP average was available, so I put down the results of the most recent poll on RCP instead.