Here is the Facebook thread for when I followed the West Virginia primaries election results on May 10 2016.
Below, I have reposted just my commentary and analysis from that evening. All times, unless otherwise noted, are CDT.
May 10 at 7:49pm ·
West Virginia, help me celebrate my birthday with a BIG win for Bernie Sanders. YUUUUUGE win.
7 percent reporting, Sanders leads 48-42.
Kenneth Huang 13 percent reporting, Sanders leads 49-41.
My prediction about the All others percentage being quite high may be right. Some guy named “P. Farrell” is taking 6.5 percent of the vote so far. In fact, my 6 percent prediction for All others may end up being a lowball.
For the gubernatorial primary, with 13 percent reporting, Jim Justice leads Booth Goodwin and Jeff Kessler (my candidate) 49-26-25.
Well, I’m really hungry and I need to get some dinner. Also, my browser is being annoyingly slow right now. So I’ll check in later.
One last side note: West Virginia is really oddly shaped. It’s like a bulb with two things awkwardly stickin out of it. Anyone ever notice that?
Like · Reply · May 10 at 8:05pm
Kenneth Huang 90 percent reporting, Sanders leads Clinton and All others 51-36-13. The race was called for him long ago.
I’m not sure what to make of this victory. On the one hand, Sanders beat Clinton by a hefty 15 points (so far). On the other hand, the All others vote is considerable here, and much more so than even my own high prediction of 6 percent. In at least one county, Mingo County, Paul Farrell actually beat Clinton and finished second. Had all 13 percent sided with Sanders, he would have gotten to the 64 percent I was predicting. On the other hand, I did underestimate how well Clinton would do; she got 36 percent instead of my predicted 30 percent. Bernie’s win is big, but it’s still not the massive 2008 Clinton-style 41-point blowout I was hoping for. I’m curious as to how the pledged delegates will be split up and whether Farrell and the others will be awarded any.
Over on the Republican side, I underestimated the All others vote there as well. Donald Trump is only at 77 percent, so All others is at 23 percent, instead of the 6 percent I predicted. Maybe his supporters did follow his ridiculous advice to not bother voting in this election? Trump also did worse than I expected in Nebraska, getting 61 percent with 98 percent reporting.
For the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Jeff Kessler lost, which is sad but not unexpected. With 88 percent, Jim Justice leads Booth Goodwin and Kessler 50.5-25.5-24.
Like · Reply · May 10 at 11:38pm
Kenneth Huang 97 percent reporting, Sanders leads 51-36-13.
Like I said earlier, I have mixed feelings about this victory. I’m glad Sanders won, and I’m glad it wasn’t any closer than it was. But I really did hope that he would break into the 60s, and he may well have if it hadn’t been for the minor Democrats who collectively took 13 percent of the vote. Paul Farrell took 9 percent of the vote, and he should be proud of that given that no one outside of West Virginia knew who he was before Tuesday.
I’ve got exit poll numberrrrs! http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/WV
17-44 year olds only made up 38 percent of the vote. Even so, Sanders was able to wallop Clinton anyway because of his strength among 45+; Clinton won that age group by a mere point, 44-43. This is normally a group Clinton wins 65-35 or thereabouts. Blacks made up a mere 3 percent of the vote. Independents made up a whopping 34 percent of the vote and they sided with Sanders 58-22.
Sanders won just about every category of voter imaginable. This Politico article (http://www.politico.com/…/5-numbers-that-explain…) highlights how Sanders won across the ideological spectrum: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, and conservative. Astoundingly, he was able to win voters who wanted the next President to be more liberal than President Obama AND those who wanted the next President to be less liberal!
Finally, Sanders beat Clinton among both coal working households and otherwise, but his margin of victory among coal households was bigger: 55-29. This is somewhat promising in the sense that Sanders’s balancing act of wanting to both reduce fossil fuel usage and transition those currently in the fossil fuel industry seems to have worked. Hopefully this will translate into good results for him next week in eastern Kentucky. The Kentucky primary will be a lot tougher because it’s a closed primary.
West Virginia Primary Results: 2016 Election – NBC News
Like · Reply · Remove Preview · May 11 at 2:40am