Here is the Facebook thread for when I followed the Democratic primaries election results on April 26 2016.
Below, I have reposted just my commentary and analysis from that evening. All times, unless otherwise indicated, are CDT.
Got a bit of a late start, but here’s the thread for the April 26 2016 primaries.
Here are the results as of right now (829 PM EDT).
6 percent reporting, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51-47.
6 percent reporting, Donald Trump leads John Kasich and Ted Cruz 58-27-12 (and has been declared the winner).
Delaware: Nothing yet on either side.
Maryland: 0 percent reporting, but it has already been called for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump based solely on exit polls.
Pennsylvania: 0 percent reporting, but it has already been called for Donald Trump based on exit polls.
5 percent reporting, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 57-42.
5 percent reporting, Donald Trump leads John Kasich and Ted Cruz 62-26-11.
Kenneth Huang Connecticut: 16 percent reporting, Sanders leads 49.2-49.1 percent, geez. But most of Clinton-friendly Fairfield and New Haven Counties haven’t reported yet.
Delaware: 34 percent reporting, Clinton leads 59-40. Depressingly, she’s leading in all three counties.
Maryland: Still nothing.
Pennsylvania: 0.1 percent reporting, Sanders leads 51-47! Yayyyy!! (Only Philadelphia County has reported so far.)
Rhode Island: 6 percent reporting, Sanders leads 57-42. The problem is that Clinton-friendly Providence County has barely started reporting.
Kenneth Huang Rhode Island and Delaware have been called for Trump, thus completing his sweep.
Delaware has been called for Clinton. 62 percent reporting, she leads 59-40.
Kenneth Huang Connecticut: 32 percent reporting, Sanders leads 50-48. But Sanders’s counties have reported more than Clinton’s has. Most troubling is Fairfield County, which at 15 percent reporting Clinton leads 55-42.
Pennsylvania: 9 percent reporting, Clinton leads 58-41, and has been declared the winner.
Rhode Island: 42 percent reporting, Sanders leads 57-41. I have reason for optimism here because even in Providence and Newport Counties, Clinton is only getting 43 percent. I’m hoping for a big Sanders win here.
Kenneth Huang Maryland: 5 percent reporting, Clinton leads 68-28.
For the U.S. Senate race, 5 percent reporting, Chris Van Hollen leads Donna Edwards (my pick) 54-39.
For MD-8, 0.5 percent reporting, Jamie Raskin (my pick) leads Kathleen Matthews and David Trone 40-23-22.
Rhode Island: 76 percent reporting, Sanders leads 56-43. The good news is that Newport County is done (Sanders won 56-43), and Bristol and Providence Counties are getting close to done (70 and 79 percent reporting, respectively). So let’s hope Sanders keeps his percentage at 56 or higher.
Connecticut: 49 percent reporting, Sanders leads 49.7-48.4.
Here’s the problem: Sanders-friendly counties in the east are already mostly reported. The three counties that are deciding this are the following:
Fairfield: 31 percent reporting, Clinton leads 56-42.
New Haven: 36 percent reporting, Clinton leads 50-48.
Hartford: 47 percent reporting, Clinton leads 53-45.
It’s good that Hartford is further along because they have the most people. If Sanders can keep up his numbers in New Haven and the Sanders counties, that might be enough to balance out his disadvantage in Hartford. This is going to be a nail-biter though.
Kenneth Huang I got into the shower and I came out to a spate of bad news.
Maryland Senate: The race has been called for Chris Van Hollen. With 45 percent reporting he leads 52-41.
MD-8: The race has tightened. Jamie Raskin leads David Trone and Kathleen Matthews 34-28-24.
Pennsylvania Senate: My pick, John Fetterman, has lost; he’s currently behind 42-30-21.
Connecticut: As I feared, Clinton moved into the lead. 75 percent reporting, Clinton leads 50-48. Almost all the Sanders counties are done while the big three Clinton ones are still reporting, so I think it’s over for Sanders here. Damn. It would have been nice for Sanders to win at least one closed primary besides Democrats Abroad.
Kenneth Huang Connecticut: 87 percent reporting, Clinton leads 50-48 and has been declared the winner. Sanders hung on in New Haven and Hartford but Fairfield really sunk him in. (Guess which racial group of voters Fairfield has a relatively large amount of??)
MD-8: 87 percent reporting, Raskin is hanging on to a 33-27 lead. This and Rhode Island are my two consolation prizes of the night.
Kenneth Huang Here’s a breakdown of the results on the Democratic side, with exit polling data for 17-44 year olds vs. 45+, as well as blacks vs. whites. As a benchmark, remember that 17-44 year olds were 45 percent of the vote in Michigan, which Sanders narrowly won, so that roughly represents the kind of 17-44 turnout that Sanders needs to win a tough contest.
Connecticut: 99 percent reporting, Clinton leads 52-47. She managed to expand her lead here. This margin was close to my prediction (Clinton 51-48). 17-44 were 37 percent of the vote, too low to put Sanders over the top, but they very well could have, as Sanders won them 66-34. Blacks were 15 percent of the vote and were what gave Clinton the win, as Sanders won whites 50-48.
Delaware: 100 percent reporting, Clinton wins 60-39. No exit polling data here.
Maryland: 99 percent reporting, Clinton leads 63-33. My prediction was Clinton 62-37; in the final results, there was a high 3 percent Uncommitted vote. 17-44 were 41 percent of the vote, but Sanders won them only 52-46, and lost 45+ 75-20. Blacks outnumbered whites 46-43 and Sanders lost both groups.
Pennsylvania: 99.5 percent reporting, Clinton leads 56-44, very close to my prediction of 55-44. At least this wasn’t as big a loss as New York and Ohio were. 17-44 were just 36 percent of the vote. Given that Sanders won them 63-37, a stronger turnout would have boosted him to at least a close loss. This really was a failure of 17-44 year olds to get out the vote. Blacks were 19 percent of the vote and went big for Clinton, but Sanders narrowly lost the white vote as well.
Rhode Island: 100 percent reporting, Sanders wins 55-44. Even this lone victory sucks, as I was hoping that Sanders’s percentage would stay at 56 percent or higher. That said, it’s better than my prediction of Sanders 51-48. No exit polling data here.
The Sanders campaign is already rhetorically shifting away from discussions of winning the pledged delegate majority. They’re talking about winning as many votes for a show of strength, platform changes, and a contested convention. That goes to show that the Sanders people realize the game is over as well.
On the Republican side, Trump crushed, getting at least 50 percent in all five states (his worst performance was 54 percent in Maryland). Nowhere did Kasich break 30 percent (his best performance was 29 percent in Connecticut), and he finished behind Cruz in Pennsylvania, a state that he said he could win and Cruz couldn’t. Kasich really has no rationale for staying in the race (unless he thinks the establishment can throw him the nomination after multiple balloting) since he’s not doing a good job of denying Trump wins and delegates.
MD-8: 100 percent reporting, Raskin wins 34-27. This is my one downballot consolation prize, since all my other endorsees lost.