2016 Presidential Primaries Predictions: June 7

Here are my Presidential predictions for the Presidential primaries and caucuses on June 7 2016.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

As always, the three key factors in a Democratic race are 1. How many of the voters are black, 2. How many of the voters are young, and 3. Whether it’s an open, semi-closed, or closed contest.

Another factor that may affect the results on the Democratic side is how big the All Others vote is.  For all the states except California, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are the only names on the ballot, so All Others will be limited to write-ins or “uncommitted”.  For California, there are five other Democrats running who are not Sanders or Clinton, and I suspect they would hurt Sanders more.

No Daily Kos Elections review that I could find, but I did come across a county-by-county prediction for the Democratic primary in California specifically, that you can see in the California section below.  I will post county predictions for the Democratic primary in California only.

As for the Republicans, since Donald Trump’s remaining opponents dropped out, he’s been getting anywhere from 61 to 77 percent of the vote, not the 90 percent I originally imagined.  I guess there’s a stronger and more persistent anti-Trump contingent than I thought.  I predict he’ll get a similar range of results in most of today’s elections.

California

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Bernie Sanders: 50 percent Bernie Sanders:
Bernie Sanders: 46 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 6 percent All others: 3 percent All others:
Percentage black: 6.67 percent (28th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

This one is a difficult one for me to predict, just because things are getting so close.  Sanders has been crisscrossing this state like crazy the last two weeks.  He’s pulling even with Clinton as the two camps are aligning along generational rather than racial lines.  Old people of any race are solidly supporting Clinton, and young people of any race are solidly lining up behind Sanders.  So the low black percentage aside, black percentage may not even matter anymore if Sanders can do relatively well among them.  Sanders is also polling just behind Clinton among Latinos and possibly ahead of her among Asians.

Daily Kos user Alibguy posted this very detailed county-by-county breakdown of the California race, predicting Clinton winning by 10 points statewide.  However, his analysis is predicated on strong and reliable support for Clinton from Latinos and Asians, which is not a given, especially the Asian part.  From what I’ve seen in polling, Sanders is only slightly behind among Latinos and is tied or ahead among Asians.  As I said earlier, race is becoming less important than age.

Ultimately, this is going to be a very close and hard-fought contest.  I’m giving it to Sanders because 1. wishful thinking, as a Sanders win in my (original) home state would be very personal to me, 2. Sanders is making inroads among racial groups that have been thought to be pro-Clinton, and 3. this is a semi-closed primary where Sanders-friendly independents can vote, and there’s been a massive surge of newly registered voters.  But I think it’ll be very close.  Right now I have it as Sanders 50-47-3, but it could well be Sanders 49-48-3 or some other combination in that range.

Five Democrats not named Sanders or Clinton are also running, which is why I have All others at a relatively high 3 percent.

Pro-Sanders counties: far northern counties, Sierra Nevada counties, Marin, San Francisco

Pro-Clinton counties: Central Valley counties, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Ventura

Swing counties: Alameda, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 56 percent Donald Trump: 62 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 44 percent All others: 38 percent All others:
There is a sort of latent hostility to Trump in California, even among its Republicans.  Trump will get 62 by virtue of being the presumptive nominee, but I do think either Ted Cruz or John Kasich could have potentially beaten him here.

Montana

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Bernie Sanders: 77 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 23 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 0.67 percent (50th in the nation)

Contest type: open primary

The available polling I found on RCP was useless, and by useless I mean that the tested candidates included Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden.  So I’m just going off of the facts that Sanders has comfortably won all the other rural white Western states, this is an open primary, and this is literally the least black state in the nation.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Donald Trump: 66 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 34 percent All others:
Trump doesn’t do well in the Mountain West.  He got 64 percent in Oregon, which is the closest rural-ish state that voted after Indiana, so I’ll arbitrarily tack on two points to give Trump 66 here.

New Jersey

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 58 percent Hillary Clinton: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 37 percent Bernie Sanders: 40 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Percentage black: 14.46 percent (15th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

This is a typical solidly pro-Clinton state: an establishment, machine politics kind of state with lots of blacks and Latinos.  Solid victory for Clinton.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 61 percent Donald Trump: 82 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 39 percent All others: 18 percent All others:
This strikes me as a state where Trump would do very well, given his dominance in surrounding Northeastern states and neighboring New York.

New Mexico

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Hillary Clinton: 54 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 45 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 1 percent All others:
Percentage black: 2.97 percent (39th in the nation)

Contest type: closed primary

A poll from February had Clinton leading Sanders 47-33, which isn’t that much given that it was back in February, and it also meant a ton of undecideds.  This is a tricky contest to predict.  On one hand, there is a low black population, which favors Sanders.  A high Latino population, but Latinos aren’t as monolithic as blacks are.  Sanders has been making some inroads among Latinos elsewhere and, as I like to remind people, he did narrowly win Latinos in Illinois.  Of course, Latinos in New Mexico may not be like Latinos in Illinois, but they’re not really like Latinos in any other state, for that matter.  So all that talk about how Clinton won big among Latinos in Arizona (did she? There were no exit polls there) and Texas may not be relevant here.  Finally, there is a large Native American population here, and while it’s not necessarily clear whether or not Sanders has been winning big among Native Americans elsewhere (again, results in Arizona only hint inconclusively that he lost among Native Americans), Sanders has definitely been reaching out to Native Americans in a way that few other Presidential candidates in the last thirty years have.

On the other hand, Clinton does still have an overall advantage among Latinos, even if it’s often overstated, and this is a closed primary.  So in the end, I think Clinton will win, but by a modest margin.  I could pick any number in the low or mid-50s for Clinton but I’ll go with 54 percent cuz that’s what I gave Trump as well.  That said, I think Sanders could potentially surprise here and make it even closer, if not outright win.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Donald Trump: 54 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 46 percent All others:
One poll from February had Ted Cruz narrowly leading Trump.  This state is heavily Latino and Trump insulted its popular Governor, so I can’t imagine him doing even moderately well here.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he failed to break 50 percent.

North Dakota

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Bernie Sanders: 80 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 20 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 1.08 percent (46th in the nation)

Contest type: open caucus

It’s an open caucus in a rural, white, Midwestern state that has no voter registration system.  What more does Sanders need?  Blow her outta the water, Bernie.

South Dakota

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Bernie Sanders: 68 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 32 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 1.14 percent (45th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

The poor Dakotas just aren’t getting any polling love.  Well, the demographics are similar to neighboring North Dakota, but it’s a semi-closed primary, so the margins won’t be as gaudy as in North Dakota.  I’m still expecting and hoping for a big Sanders win here.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Donald Trump: 62 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 38 percent All others:
Trump has generally done relatively poorly in the rural Midwest, so I’m giving him a relatively low percentage here.
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2016 Presidential Primaries Predictions: June 4 and 5

Here are my Presidential predictions for the two Democratic Presidential contests on June 4 and 5 2016.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

As always, the three key factors in a Democratic race are 1. How many of the voters are black, 2. How many of the voters are young, and 3. Whether it’s an open, semi-closed, or closed contest.

June 4: Virgin Islands

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Hillary Clinton: 65 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 35 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 76 percent (including Afro-Caribbean)

Contest type: closed caucus

I included the fact that the Virgin Islands is 76 percent black, but on the other hand, black here doesn’t necessarily mean the same as black on the mainland.  Sanders has shown he can win closed caucuses.  That said, this is probably very favorable to Clinton, as she’s won all the territorial contests so far, and there’s nothing to suggest differently about this one.

 

June 5: Puerto Rico

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 48 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 12.4 percent

Contest type: open primary

12.4 percent black, but again, black here might not mean the same as black on the mainland.  But again, Clinton has won all the territories thus far, and conventional wisdom has it that she’s the favorite here.  She crushed Sanders by 68-32 in exit polling among Hispanics/Latinos in Florida, many of whom are Puerto Rican transplants.  That said, Sanders has been fighting hard here, or at least harder than you might expect for someone so disadvantaged, and for good reason: there are a crazy 60 pledged delegates at stake here.  For comparison, Connecticut is actually slightly larger in population and also very blue, but it only has 55 pledged delegates.  Sanders has been running a populist campaign (of course) aimed at appealing to Puerto Ricans who want a fair deal given their ongoing budget crisis.  I think this, combined with the open primary format, will allow Sanders to narrow the gap, and Clinton will win, but not by much.