Here are my Presidential predictions for the Presidential primaries and caucuses on June 7 2016. I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.
As always, the three key factors in a Democratic race are 1. How many of the voters are black, 2. How many of the voters are young, and 3. Whether it’s an open, semi-closed, or closed contest.
Another factor that may affect the results on the Democratic side is how big the All Others vote is. For all the states except California, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are the only names on the ballot, so All Others will be limited to write-ins or “uncommitted”. For California, there are five other Democrats running who are not Sanders or Clinton, and I suspect they would hurt Sanders more.
No Daily Kos Elections review that I could find, but I did come across a county-by-county prediction for the Democratic primary in California specifically, that you can see in the California section below. I will post county predictions for the Democratic primary in California only.
As for the Republicans, since Donald Trump’s remaining opponents dropped out, he’s been getting anywhere from 61 to 77 percent of the vote, not the 90 percent I originally imagined. I guess there’s a stronger and more persistent anti-Trump contingent than I thought. I predict he’ll get a similar range of results in most of today’s elections.
California
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| Hillary Clinton: 48 percent | Bernie Sanders: 50 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
| Bernie Sanders: 46 percent | Hillary Clinton: 47 percent | Hillary Clinton: |
| All others: 6 percent | All others: 3 percent | All others: |
| Percentage black: 6.67 percent (28th in the nation)
Contest type: semi-closed primary This one is a difficult one for me to predict, just because things are getting so close. Sanders has been crisscrossing this state like crazy the last two weeks. He’s pulling even with Clinton as the two camps are aligning along generational rather than racial lines. Old people of any race are solidly supporting Clinton, and young people of any race are solidly lining up behind Sanders. So the low black percentage aside, black percentage may not even matter anymore if Sanders can do relatively well among them. Sanders is also polling just behind Clinton among Latinos and possibly ahead of her among Asians. Daily Kos user Alibguy posted this very detailed county-by-county breakdown of the California race, predicting Clinton winning by 10 points statewide. However, his analysis is predicated on strong and reliable support for Clinton from Latinos and Asians, which is not a given, especially the Asian part. From what I’ve seen in polling, Sanders is only slightly behind among Latinos and is tied or ahead among Asians. As I said earlier, race is becoming less important than age. Ultimately, this is going to be a very close and hard-fought contest. I’m giving it to Sanders because 1. wishful thinking, as a Sanders win in my (original) home state would be very personal to me, 2. Sanders is making inroads among racial groups that have been thought to be pro-Clinton, and 3. this is a semi-closed primary where Sanders-friendly independents can vote, and there’s been a massive surge of newly registered voters. But I think it’ll be very close. Right now I have it as Sanders 50-47-3, but it could well be Sanders 49-48-3 or some other combination in that range. Five Democrats not named Sanders or Clinton are also running, which is why I have All others at a relatively high 3 percent. Pro-Sanders counties: far northern counties, Sierra Nevada counties, Marin, San Francisco Pro-Clinton counties: Central Valley counties, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Ventura Swing counties: Alameda, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara |
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Republican Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| Donald Trump: 56 percent | Donald Trump: 62 percent | Donald Trump: |
| All others: 44 percent | All others: 38 percent | All others: |
| There is a sort of latent hostility to Trump in California, even among its Republicans. Trump will get 62 by virtue of being the presumptive nominee, but I do think either Ted Cruz or John Kasich could have potentially beaten him here. | ||
Montana
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No recent polling available | Bernie Sanders: 77 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
| Hillary Clinton: 23 percent | Hillary Clinton: | |
| All others: 0 percent | All others: | |
| Percentage black: 0.67 percent (50th in the nation)
Contest type: open primary The available polling I found on RCP was useless, and by useless I mean that the tested candidates included Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. So I’m just going off of the facts that Sanders has comfortably won all the other rural white Western states, this is an open primary, and this is literally the least black state in the nation. |
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Republican Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No polling available | Donald Trump: 66 percent | Donald Trump: |
| All others: 34 percent | All others: | |
| Trump doesn’t do well in the Mountain West. He got 64 percent in Oregon, which is the closest rural-ish state that voted after Indiana, so I’ll arbitrarily tack on two points to give Trump 66 here. | ||
New Jersey
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| Hillary Clinton: 58 percent | Hillary Clinton: 59 percent | Hillary Clinton: |
| Bernie Sanders: 37 percent | Bernie Sanders: 40 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
| All others: 5 percent | All others: 1 percent | All others: |
| Percentage black: 14.46 percent (15th in the nation)
Contest type: semi-closed primary This is a typical solidly pro-Clinton state: an establishment, machine politics kind of state with lots of blacks and Latinos. Solid victory for Clinton. |
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Republican Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| Donald Trump: 61 percent | Donald Trump: 82 percent | Donald Trump: |
| All others: 39 percent | All others: 18 percent | All others: |
| This strikes me as a state where Trump would do very well, given his dominance in surrounding Northeastern states and neighboring New York. | ||
New Mexico
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No recent polling available | Hillary Clinton: 54 percent | Hillary Clinton: |
| Bernie Sanders: 45 percent | Bernie Sanders: | |
| All others: 1 percent | All others: | |
| Percentage black: 2.97 percent (39th in the nation)
Contest type: closed primary A poll from February had Clinton leading Sanders 47-33, which isn’t that much given that it was back in February, and it also meant a ton of undecideds. This is a tricky contest to predict. On one hand, there is a low black population, which favors Sanders. A high Latino population, but Latinos aren’t as monolithic as blacks are. Sanders has been making some inroads among Latinos elsewhere and, as I like to remind people, he did narrowly win Latinos in Illinois. Of course, Latinos in New Mexico may not be like Latinos in Illinois, but they’re not really like Latinos in any other state, for that matter. So all that talk about how Clinton won big among Latinos in Arizona (did she? There were no exit polls there) and Texas may not be relevant here. Finally, there is a large Native American population here, and while it’s not necessarily clear whether or not Sanders has been winning big among Native Americans elsewhere (again, results in Arizona only hint inconclusively that he lost among Native Americans), Sanders has definitely been reaching out to Native Americans in a way that few other Presidential candidates in the last thirty years have. On the other hand, Clinton does still have an overall advantage among Latinos, even if it’s often overstated, and this is a closed primary. So in the end, I think Clinton will win, but by a modest margin. I could pick any number in the low or mid-50s for Clinton but I’ll go with 54 percent cuz that’s what I gave Trump as well. That said, I think Sanders could potentially surprise here and make it even closer, if not outright win. |
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Republican Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No recent polling available | Donald Trump: 54 percent | Donald Trump: |
| All others: 46 percent | All others: | |
| One poll from February had Ted Cruz narrowly leading Trump. This state is heavily Latino and Trump insulted its popular Governor, so I can’t imagine him doing even moderately well here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he failed to break 50 percent. | ||
North Dakota
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No polling available | Bernie Sanders: 80 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
| Hillary Clinton: 20 percent | Hillary Clinton: | |
| All others: 0 percent | All others: | |
| Percentage black: 1.08 percent (46th in the nation)
Contest type: open caucus It’s an open caucus in a rural, white, Midwestern state that has no voter registration system. What more does Sanders need? Blow her outta the water, Bernie. |
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South Dakota
Democratic Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No polling available | Bernie Sanders: 68 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
| Hillary Clinton: 32 percent | Hillary Clinton: | |
| All others: 0 percent | All others: | |
| Percentage black: 1.14 percent (45th in the nation)
Contest type: semi-closed primary The poor Dakotas just aren’t getting any polling love. Well, the demographics are similar to neighboring North Dakota, but it’s a semi-closed primary, so the margins won’t be as gaudy as in North Dakota. I’m still expecting and hoping for a big Sanders win here. |
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Republican Party
| RealClearPolitics Polling Average | Predictions | Results |
| No polling available | Donald Trump: 62 percent | Donald Trump: |
| All others: 38 percent | All others: | |
| Trump has generally done relatively poorly in the rural Midwest, so I’m giving him a relatively low percentage here. | ||
maverickjh 