November 3 2020 General Election

On November 3 2020 at approximately 610 PM, at GAMA Event Center in Austin, Texas, I voted in the 2020 General Election.  Here is how I voted.

President/Vice President: Howie Hawkins/Angela Walker (Green)

I haven’t gotten around to writing up why I refused for Democratic nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and I probably never will.  Suffice to say they are far, far too centrist, corporatist, and neoliberal for me to be comfortable casting my vote for them, regardless of who else is on the ballot.  On the other hand, I agree with Hawkins on virtually every issue.

United States Senator: David B. Collins (Green)

This was a case where I could actually be okay with, albeit not enthusiastic about, casting my vote for the Democratic nominee, Mary “MJ” Hegar.  But Collins’s positions are just so much stronger than Hegar’s weak sauce.  Unlike my vote for President, this was a case where if the Green nominee wasn’t on the ballot, I would vote for the Democratic nominee.

United States Representative District 10: Mike Siegel (Democratic)

This was the vote I was most excited to cast; it was the fifth time I voted for Siegel over two election cycles.  Siegel is actually a strong champion of liberal beliefs, values, and policy positions and a model Texas Democrat.  I wish all Democrats running in Texas and across the country could be in the same mold as him.

Railroad Commissioner: Katija “Kat” Gruene (Green)

I had voted for Democratic nominee Chrysta Castañeda in the March and July primaries.  Again this was a case where the Democratic nominee was okay and I could’ve voted for her in the absence of a better candidate on the ballot, but the Green nominee was just so much better.  The main issue that separated them for me was a ban on fracking – Castañeda doesn’t support it and Gruene does.

Chief Justice, Supreme Court: Amy Clark Meachum (Democratic)

There wasn’t a whole lot of information to go off for this race (or any of the judicial ones really).  Meachum sounded fine.

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 6 – Unexpired Term: Jane Bland (Republican)

So one of the biggest issues I could go off of for deciding on these judicial races was the issue of voters electing judges, which I’m against.  In this case, I voted for Bland because, while she hasn’t said she opposes popularly electing judges, she at least supports the commission to study judicial selection, whereas Democratic nominee Kathy Cheng is blissfully supportive of the current system of electing partisan judges.

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7: Staci Williams (Democratic)

Again, not a lot of information and Williams seemed fine.

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8: Brett Busby (Republican)

As with Supreme Court Place 6, I voted for Busby because he at least supports the commission to study judicial selection, whereas Democratic nominee Gisela D. Triana is blissfully supportive of the current system of electing partisan judges.  Another candidate in the race, Libertarian Tom Oxford, supports conflict of interest rules for elected judges, but on the other hand he seems completely dismissive of anti-bias training, so I ruled him out.

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 3: Elizabeth Davis Frizell (Democratic)

Frizell seemed fine.

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 4: Tina Clinton (Democratic)

Clinton seemed fine. (This Clinton, not the other two.)

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 9: David Newell (Republican)

I voted for Newell because he supports medical treatment for non-dangerous mentally ill criminals, and increases in availability and standards of public defender representation for indigent defendants.  His Democratic opponent Brandon Birmingham did not have as strong public statements on those issues.

Member, State Board of Education, District 10: Marsha Burnett-Webster (Democratic)

Burnett-Webster seemed fine.  This was another race where I didn’t see a whole lot of important issues at stake.

State Representative District 49: Gina Hinojosa (Democratic)

Hinojosa has been my State Representative for almost my entire time in Austin so far and I haven’t had any cause for complaints.

Chief Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District: Darlene Byrne (Democratic)

I defaulted to Byrne as the Democrat because there didn’t seem to be a whole lot of differences between her and Republican nominee Jeff Rose.  They both supported partisan elections of judges, which was disappointing.

District Judge, 53rd Judicial District: Maria Cantú Hexsel (Democratic)

District Judge, 98th Judicial District: Rhonda Hurley (Democratic)

District Judge, 126th Judicial District: Aurora Martinez Jones (Democratic)

District Judge, 167th Judicial District: Dayna Blazey (Democratic)

District Judge, 200th Judicial District: Jessica Mangrum (Democratic)

District Judge, 345th Judicial District: Jan Soifer (Democratic)

District Judge, 353rd Judicial District: Madeleine Connor (Democratic)

District Judge, 390th Judicial District: Julie Kocurek (Democratic)

District Judge, 427th Judicial District: Tamara Needles (Democratic)

District Judge, 450th Judicial District: Brad Urrutia (Democratic)

District Judge, 460th Judicial District: Selena Alvarenga (Democratic)

For all these District Judge races except for the 460th Judicial District one, there was only one candidate running and they were a Democrat.  Because they were Democrats, I just went ahead and voted for them without knowing who they really were (though I have actually met Maria Cantú Hexsel, running in the 53rd Judicial District), and then I voted for Democrat Selena Alvarenga in the contested 460th Judicial District race.  I felt less guilty blindly voting based on party affiliation than I do for other races, because of how difficult it is to make a truly informed decision on judicial races – which is precisely one of the main reasons why I’m against judicial elections in the first place.

District Attorney, 53rd Judicial District: José Garza (Democratic)

I was proud to support Garza in the March and July primaries based on his positions on various criminal justice issues, including ending cash bail and curtailing civil asset forfeiture, and I was happy to vote for him again.  Like Mike Siegel, Garza is a model of what a Democrat should be like.

County Judge – Unexpired Term: Andy Brown (Democratic)

Brown seemed to be a decent candidate to me.

County Court at Law No. 9: Kim Williams (Democratic)

Lacking sufficient knowledge to make an informed decision (in fact, lacking the knowledge that I would even be voting on this race until I was actually at the polling place), I defaulted to voting for the Democrat.

Sheriff: Sally Hernandez (Democratic)

Hernandez has been a decent Sheriff so far.

County Tax Assessor-Collector: Bruce Elfant (Democratic)

Insofar as there are even salient issues to be discussed for this office, Elfant did seem to be better on them.

Austin City Council, District 4: Greg Casar

Casar has been my City Council member for almost the entire time I’ve been in Austin so far and he’s been a strong voice on behalf of the poor and disadvantaged, and has been consistently calling for rent and eviction relief and greater funding of social services during this COVID-19 pandemic.

City of Austin Tax Rate Election, Proposition A: For

This was the proposition that would launch Project Connect, which would revitalize Capital Metro by adding badly needed light rail lines (including one that goes to the airport, thank god!) and new bus lines, among other major upgrades.  It’s funny because one of these past years I’ve been in Austin (I forget which year it was), I was going to the airport through RideAustin (R.I.P.) and me and my driver got around to the subject of how hard it was to get to the airport because of the lack of rail servicing it, and the consequent reliance on ride-hailing services like RideAustin.  And he was saying that it would actually be pretty easy to drill rail tunnels under Downtown Austin because of the local substrate being relatively soft limestone.  Lo and behold, along comes this ballot proposition that would add new light rail tunnels under Downtown.

Quite frankly I get embarrassed as an Austinite that we don’t have a real rail system and especially one that connects to the airport.  When outside visitors arrive at the airport they don’t have a handy rail line right there that they can just jump on, like what San Francisco’s and Atlanta’s airports have.  Instead they have to call a ride-hail or take a bus (I think there’s just one bus line that provides frequent service to the airport).

Project Connect is what Austin has needed for years and it’s what should’ve been done years ago.  And the arguments in opposition have been hilariously clumsy.  “It’s too expensive!”  “MORE taxes!!”  “No one wants to ride in a train after having been through a pandemic!!!”  “Just call an Uber instead!!!!”  Come on.  The strongest argument I saw in opposition to this was that poor people would have to leave their neighborhoods adjacent to the new rail lines, that were either removed altogether or gentrified.  This proposition conscientiously addressed that through $300 million in “anti-displacement” funds, though I’m not totally sure if that will be enough money.  But it’s a good start and I’m glad people are thinking about how to reconcile the equally vital needs that are good transportation and affordable housing.

I love Austin so much and it’s long past time Austin gets a public transportation system it needs and deserves.

City of Austin Bond Election, Proposition B: For

This was a proposition that would raise and direct money for infrastructure like roads, sidewalks, trails, drainage, and so on.  As a big believer in more government spending on public infrastructure, of course I supported it.

Austin Independent School District Board of Trustees, District 3: Abstain

Kevin Foster was running unopposed and I had no information about him, not even what party he identifies with.  So I abstained from voting for him.

Austin Independent School District Board of Trustees, At-Large Position 8: Abstain

There were four candidates running for this position and I didn’t know any of them from Adam.  No party affiliation even to go off of.  So I abstained from voting in this race.

A Pandemic Life Update: July 22 2020

Am I the only one who’s actually staying at home and not seeing anyone during this COVID-19 pandemic?

I ask because I see people on Facebook and other social media sternly lecturing others to “stay at home”, “don’t go out to anything”, “why are you being so irresponsible and selfish”, and then some of those same people post Facebook Stories or other posts of them happily walking around outside, hanging out with friends, going to a protest (for the causes they approve of, of course; protests for causes they’re against are completely irresponsible), and so on.

As for myself, I have not had any kind of in-person contact with anyone besides service employees (so, all strangers) since March 18 2020, so more than four months now.  In that same four-month time period, I have not left my apartment to do ANYTHING besides go to work and run errands.  My already precarious mental health has suffered immensely.  My mental state has declined to the lowest point in at least two years, and possibly in my entire lifetime.  Well, it was even lower a few days ago, but has recovered enough now that I can sit down and write this entry.  It feels rather pathetic to admit this, but as I have no remaining professional or social endeavors to live for, most of my animating impetus in life comes from just enjoying diversionary pleasures like restaurants, bars, movie theaters, and music venues, the latter three of which are closed now.  In theory I could be using this freed time to be taking care of life business and exploring my movie and music hobbies at home (as I stated in my May 10 post), but in practice I’ve not done this nearly to the extent that I would like, because it’s really hard to even get out of bed these days.

It’s bad enough to see this trend of everyone getting on their High Horses on the Internet and talking down to others.  What annoys me even more is that everyone is acting like the only problems right now are COVID-19 and police brutality.  Those are obviously serious problems, but no one is talking about the financial devastation and mental health impacts (including a likely increase in suicide rates) this pandemic has brought about.  It makes me wonder if everyone just happens to be financially comfortable right now, and are able to mitigate mental health issues by, ahem, going out and seeing friends contra their own admonitions.  Meanwhile, I’m cutting myself off from doing what little I have left to enjoy in life, keeping me and others “safe” from COVID-19 while plunging me into deep mental illness.  Great.

I write all this to just put on the record that I am preparing to break this long period of abnegation by going to (gasp!) a restaurant, in the hopes that it might help me once again feel, even a little bit, what it’s like to be alive.  And if I do go out and try to have some pleasure again, I don’t want any shit from these sanctimonious quarantine hypocrites, especially because I’ve done my duty these past four months, at great cost to my own mental health.  But don’t worry, I have not the money nor energy nor will to make going out to restaurants (which, along with (maybe?) coffee houses, are pretty much the only “fun” businesses open right now anyway) a regular habit.  And I could hardly get most of my friends to meet me in person even before the pandemic started.  So I’ll still be mostly suffering in isolation at home, much to the approval of the oh-so-sage Online Covid Police.

The End of a Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday Era

In 2016, when I was looking to leave Oklahoma and deciding where to live next, I wanted to move to a city that had great film programming – and by great, I mean unique and diverse.  Something besides just the usual gamut of the latest first-run blockbusters.  I wanted events that would introduce me to “old” movies that I had never heard of and would never have heard of if it hadn’t been for those events showcasing those movies.  I had visited Austin, Texas early in that year and as I learned more about Austin and, in particular, the Alamo Drafthouse Cinema chain that had six locations in Austin, I decided that Austin had what I was looking for, so I moved there in July 2016.

Once I had moved to Austin and looked more into what the Alamo Drafthouse had to offer, I learned about two long-running film series in particular that offered a weekly fill of cinematic exploration.  Terror Tuesday was a series that played horror movies every Tuesday night, and Weird Wednesday was a series that played “weird” movies every Wednesday night.  As I would come to find out, both “horror” and “weird” are used very broadly, as I’ve seen movies as tame and fun as Teen Wolf at Terror Tuesday and as seemingly conventional as Black Caesar at Weird Wednesday.

As it turned out, the events weren’t just rote screenings of the movies.  Each movie was preceded by trailers for upcoming specialty programming (including future Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday shows) and then an introduction by one of the specialty programmers.  Those introductions are some of my favorite things ever.  They’re usually about ten minutes long, and they explore the history behind the film’s production and distribution, stories about the filmmakers and cast, the response to the film, both contemporary and retrospective, a description of the film print being shown (more often than not a 35 mm print from either the movie’s distributor or the Austin-based American Genre Film Archive), and a brief selling pitch for the movie being shown for the series the next week.  The knowledgeable excitement coming from the programmer seems to always transmit onto those of us in the audience and get us jazzed up for both the movie we’re about to watch and the one coming up next week.

My first Terror Tuesday was Terror Tuesday: The Texas Chainsaw Massacre 2, on September 27 2016, at Alamo Drafthouse Ritz. (Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays were originally held at Alamo Drafthouse Ritz, before switching to Alamo Drafthouse South Lamar starting in January 2018.) I subsequently went to Terror Tuesday: Plan 9 from Outer Space on October 4, and Terror Tuesday: The Deadly Spawn (one of my all-time favorites!) on November 1, out of being interested in seeing those movies.  I hadn’t originally planned on going to one or more Terror Tuesdays every calendar month, but it had turned out that way, and by November I decided to keep the streak going and see how long I could do it.

I also wanted to see what Weird Wednesday was about, and my first Weird Wednesday was Weird Wednesday: Conquest, on October 19 2016, at Alamo Drafthouse Ritz.  I didn’t initially think of going to at least one Weird Wednesday a month the way I thought of doing it for Terror Tuesday, so while I did go to Weird Wednesday: School of the Holy Beast (also one of my all-time favorites!) on December 14, I didn’t go to any Weird Wednesdays in November 2016, January 2017, or February 2017.

But by March 2017, the two film series had become such an enriching and important part of my life in Austin, and I became enamored with the idea of keeping attendance streaks going for them.  Having already gone to at least one Terror Tuesday in every month since September 2016, I decided that I might as well set a goal of going to at least one Terror Tuesday and at least one Weird Wednesday every calendar month going forward, and I started that streak that month, with Terror Tuesday: Castle of Blood on March 28 2017, and Weird Wednesday: Faster, Pussycat! Kill! Kill! (another all-time favorite!) on March 29 2017.

And for the next 36 months in a row, all the way through February 2020, I managed to keep that streak going.  In some months, I only saw one of each.  In other months, I saw multiple ones of each, in some cases going multiple weeks in a row.  There was just one month – December 2018 – where I managed to attend every Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday that month; it helped that there were only five events total that month due to the holiday season.

I saw so many movies during this three-year time period; some great, many others… well, terrible, but all of them made for worthwhile outings that more than satisfied the movie lover part of me.  Most of them were eye-catching titles that I probably would not have seen or even heard of if it hadn’t been for the film series.  And that’s what I love most about Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday: they introduce me to all these movies I wouldn’t have known about otherwise and I wouldn’t have even thought to search for.  Going to Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays quickly became an integral part of my life.  Planning my upcoming outings, including learning what movies were coming up and figuring out which ones to go to and which ones to skip, was one of my favorite things to do.  And Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays became – at least! – 50 percent of the entire reason I wanted to stay in Austin. (There are Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays at the Brooklyn and San Francisco locations of the Alamo Drafthouse, but I have no desire to live in those cities.)

Alas, all good things will eventually come to an end.  The last calendar month where I went to at least one Terror Tuesday and at least one Weird Wednesday was February 2020, when I went to just one of each: Terror Tuesday: Candyman on February 4 and Weird Wednesday: Polyester on February 12.  As of this writing, those were also the last Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday I went to, period, and I can fairly say those were good ones to end on (for now).  I long had a feeling that it was only a matter of time before I would inevitably have to end the uninterrupted streak, and I always figured it would be because I would have to leave Austin due to the frustratingly ever-rising cost of living.  I could have never imagined the actual reason for the streak ending.

For March 2020, I was not able to go to the Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays in the first three weeks of that month, but I was set to go to Terror Tuesday: The Blob (1988) on March 24, and Weird Wednesday: Seeds (with a special appearance by Andy Milligan biographer Jimmy McDonough) on March 25.  Those would’ve been my Terror Tuesday and Weird Wednesday quota for the month.  I even had my ticket for Terror Tuesday: The Blob (1988) purchased already online.  And then came the COVID-19 pandemic.  I had been nervously watching the ongoing fast-moving developments surrounding businesses’ responses to the pandemic, seeing the Alamo Drafthouse in particular try to keep things going by introducing more vigorous cleaning procedures and spacing audience parties apart.  As restrictions tightened around in-person gatherings, I kept my fingers crossed that the Drafthouse could at least stay open until March 25.  But no, all too soon, movie theaters could no longer hold out against the tide of the inevitable, and on March 16 Alamo Drafthouse announced that it would be closing indefinitely in response to the pandemic.  I was very dismayed, especially about the fact that I would not be able to end my attendance streak in March 2020 so it would neatly reflect having started the streak in March 2017.  Later I realized that, having ended in and included February 2020, my streak still lasted an even 36 months, or three years, because the starting and ending months were both counted.  Still, it would have been nice to finish on the same month of the year that I had started on.

With physical events suspended indefinitely, Alamo Drafthouse Cinema is gamely trying to keep the fire burning by offering “Virtual Cinema” virtual screenings of Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays, where they send customers the movie selections digitally, complete with pre-recorded versions of the pre-show content and programmer introductions.  They started this with a virtual Terror Tuesday: Centipede Horror on March 31 and a virtual Weird Wednesday: Godmonster of Indian Flats on April 8. (I have noticed that many of the titles are repeats from ones shown during my three-year attendance streak; for example, I saw Godmonster of Indian Flats at a previous Weird Wednesday on July 18 2018.) I have declined to participate.  Not only do I lack a good movie-watching setup at home, it’s just not the same as going to the actual physical events.  I would rather wait until the theater reopens and the two series start back up with regular in-person screenings, and maybe I’ll get a new streak going then.

It’s been four months now since I’ve been to a Terror Tuesday or a Weird Wednesday, and I really do miss them and the Alamo Drafthouse.  In keeping with the trend of “this has been the longest I’ve gone without doing X” that all of us are experiencing during this shutdown, this really has been the longest time I’ve gone without going to these two series, since I started going to these two series.  While it’s unquestionably sad that I won’t be able to make new memories for now, I do feel like my memories from the past are all I have to hold on to in these dark times.  And there are plenty of good ones: for example, almost a year ago today, on June 5 2019, I went to Weird Wednesday: Can’t Stop the Music and I had so much fun.

My three-year attendance streak going to both Terror Tuesdays and Weird Wednesdays every calendar month started with Terror Tuesday: Castle of Blood on March 28 2017 and ended with Weird Wednesday: Polyester on February 12 2020.  In that time span, my personal world really expanded tremendously and I learned so much about cinema.  All this new knowledge and these fond memories from this three-year time span are truly gifts that have indelibly made my life all that more interesting and culturally rich, no matter what happens going forward.

Life Update at 33

Today I turned 33 years old.  I started writing yearly life updates on my 30th birthday back in 2017.  2016 and 2017 were horrible years – two of the worst years of my life.  On my 31st birthday in May 2018, life was still pretty bad, though I had started to pull myself out of the ditch of 2016 and 2017.  Things continued to turn around over the course of the rest of 2018 and into 2019.  2018 and especially 2019 turned out to be two of the best years of my life, and definitely my best years since I left graduate school and moved to Austin in 2016.  I was still very much unmotivated and poor and struggling with the basic functions of being an adult, but at the same time, I was really trying to enjoy the cultural and recreational aspects of life that I had moved to Austin for.  I continued to go to wonderful movie events and great restaurants and bars, and most notably, I took advantage of Austin’s rich local music scene and started going to electronic dance music shows and events.  Turned out that this musical aspect of the world that I had previously left mostly unexplored opened up a huge new part of my life that was both culturally and socially enriching.

 

Of course, a good thing can’t last forever and while I left 2019 on a high note, come 2020 and my life started going downhill again.  First, I experienced a series of setbacks in my social life that left me feeling very weak and emotionally isolated.  It’s a lot to explain but the short version is that, from what I sense, I have a much harder time making meaningful friendships than most other people.  Then, as I was preparing a new effort to get back into the social world, along comes the COVID-19 pandemic and everything that I was depending on to find meaning in the world – eating at restaurants, attending movie events and music events – gets wiped out.  It’s amazing how much the loss of these things could really plunge my life into a new period of bleary emptiness and lack of meaning.  As of this writing, I have not seen any of my friends in person for almost two months.  The disconnection from my social world and new but familiar financial stress plunged me into a series of debilitating depressive episodes, the last of which started two weeks ago.  I think I’m a little better now… I’m hoping to come out of it over the next few days so I can be productive again.

 

All in all, 2020 is shaping up to be a pretty bad year, my worst since 2017.  I’m trying to not get too mired into negative feelings and I really should just focus on getting by and saving money.  One of the few bright spots about this pandemic is that the lack of events has facilitated staying home and saving money.  I’ve also coped by using my newly freed time to discover new music and start catching up on writing movie reviews.  I’m hoping to use the rest of my 2020 to catch up on life business and try to put my life back together again.

2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries Predictions: February 11

Here are my predictions for the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses on February 11 2020.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

New Hampshire

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Bernie Sanders: 28.7 percent Bernie Sanders: 30 percent  
Pete Buttigieg: 21.3 percent Pete Buttigieg: 20 percent  
Amy Klobuchar: 11.7 percent Amy Klobuchar: 15 percent  
Elizabeth Warren: 11.0 percent Elizabeth Warren: 12 percent  
Joe Biden: 11.0 percent Joe Biden: 11 percent  
Andrew Yang: 3.7 percent Andrew Yang: 4 percent  
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.3 percent Tulsi Gabbard: 3 percent  
Tom Steyer: 1.7 percent Tom Steyer: 2 percent  
Deval Patrick: 1.0 percent Deval Patrick: 1 percent  
Michael Bennet: 0.3 percent Michael Bennet: 1 percent  
All others: 6.3 percent All others: 1 percent  
I actually think the results will largely reflect the polling averages, with some shifts in the most recent trends that will enlarge the differences between the various candidates.  For Sanders, he’s getting a late but modest bump that pushes him away from second-place Buttigieg.  Buttigieg enjoyed a surge after his kinda-win in the Iowa caucuses but it has tapered off since the February 7 debate where he took a lot of incoming fire, so I foresee a slight dip for him.  Klobuchar is having a surge (which baffles me personally, but oh well) and she’s probably picking up some support that’s leaving Buttigieg, so she will probably outperform her polling.  Everyone else is just sort of languishing – does anyone even remember that Warren is running, and are people still taking Biden seriously as a contender?  Yang and Gabbard were probably counting on New Hampshire as the high-water marks of their campaigns as they were polling around the 5 or 6 percent area a few weeks ago, but their support has also dipped down a bit, probably from voters leaving them for Sanders.  

 

92nd Academy Awards: Predictions and Choices

February 9 Note: The following entry is incomplete.  Only the ranking for Best Picture is complete.

 

Here are my preferences and comments for the top eight categories for the 92nd Academy Awards in a table format.  For the first time since, I believe, the 85th Academy Awards (for movies released in 2012), I was not able to watch all the nominees for the Academy Award for Best Picture prior to the ceremony, which is today, February 9 2019.  There were four main reasons for me not being able to do so: 1. The ceremony having been moved up to earlier in February as opposed to the last Sunday in February, when it used to be, 2. A lot going on in my own personal life that kept me from watching more movies, 3. The Irishman and Marriage Story were not given a very wide theatrical release, 4. Problems with my laptop that make it difficult for me to use the Internet.  So for this year, given that I haven’t seen four of the nine Best Picture nominees, which also produced a lot of the nominees for the other categories, there are a lot of cases where I’ve only seen one movie in a given category, in which case my preference ranking isn’t really meaningful.

 

Nonetheless, for what it’s worth, I’ll put the movies and performances I haven’t seen at the bottom, separate from the actual rankings.  For the predictions, rather than try to formulate my own as in previous years, I just put GoldDerby’s; you can find all their predictions here

 

Best Picture

Nominees by alphabetical order (the titles in bold were the ones I watched before the nominations were announced on January 13) Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
Ford v Ferrari Parasite  
The Irishman 1917
Jojo Rabbit Joker
Joker Ford v Ferrari
Little Women Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story Haven’t seen:

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite  
 

 

Best Director

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
 
 

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
 
 

 

2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries Predictions: February 3

Here are my predictions for the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses on February 3 2020.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

Iowa

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions (for Final Alignment) Results
Bernie Sanders: 23.0 percent Bernie Sanders: 29 percent Bernie Sanders:
Joe Biden: 19.3 percent Joe Biden: 20 percent  
Pete Buttigieg: 16.8 percent Pete Buttigieg: 19 percent  
Elizabeth Warren: 15.5 percent Elizabeth Warren: 18 percent  
Amy Klobuchar: 9.0 percent Amy Klobuchar: 6 percent  
Andrew Yang: 3.3 percent Andrew Yang: 5 percent  
Tom Steyer: 3.0 percent Tom Steyer: 1 percent  
All others: 2.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Bernie Sanders benefits from being atop the polls and having a very powerful ground game. Joe Biden stands to benefit from picking up some of Amy Klobuchar’s supporters where Klobuchar fails to make viability, but his ground game is so weak that he doesn’t gain much from where he currently is in the polls. Pete Buttigieg’s and Elizabeth Warren’s relatively strong ground games allow them to improve just a little bit from their current poll standings, as their support has stagnated. Amy Klobuchar’s and Andrew Yang’s late surges are tempered by failure to reach viability in many precincts.  

 

I Endorse Bernie Sanders for President in 2020

Bernie Sanders has been literally my favorite living politician since all the way back in 2005, when I first really learned about him in Matt Taibbi’s excellent and highly recommended “Inside the Horror Show That Is Congress”. When Bernie Sanders announced he was going to run for President again in 2020, it seemed like a no-brainer that I would endorse him for the Presidency, as I did in 2016. But I have never been someone who wants to jump into a decision on the single most important political office in the land until I have had a chance to hear from every candidate, and a chance to see how their campaigns play out over the course of the year or so between their announcements and when the first voting begins.

 

In particular, two other candidates stood out for me: Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang. At the beginning of the primary season, I had provisionally ranked Sanders, Gabbard, and Yang as my number one, two, or three candidates, and the only candidates I would be considering for my vote. Gabbard and Yang traded places over the course of the past year; at this point I would probably put Yang just slightly ahead of Gabbard. Sanders has always kept his place at the top for me. To be sure, I have had reason to find both pleasure and disappointment in all three candidates. But in the end, I have come to realize this: when possible, accept no substitutes.

 

What I have always looked for in candidates for any office are individuals who believe in the cause of an active, compassionate, and democratic government that will provide for the needs of all people in this country. That has been my guiding cause since I first became interested in politics as a teenager and I have always wanted to see politicians, especially Democratic politicians, who openly articulated the message of activist government as I would. Bernie Sanders has fulfilled this personal desire in running a campaign that has built a winning central message with three component principles that he and I both deeply believe in:

 

  1. Government, at all levels, must directly serve the basic needs and interests of all people, not just those who are already wealthy and well-connected.
  2. We individuals are all connected as one country and one society, and in both moral and practical terms, what affects one affects us all.
  3. Real political change happens from capturing hearts and minds, engaging with people on what’s important in this country, and mobilizing and leading them to do what’s necessary to make meaningful progress a reality.

 

My political dream has been to see a democratically accountable government – at federal, state, and local levels – that takes direct action to advance the general welfare of this country and all its people, and to see politicians openly and explicitly advocate for such. In Bernie Sanders, we have such a politician, and, with Sanders as President and with the aid of like-minded people in Congress and in state and local governments across the country, we have a new hope of creating such a government in the years to come.

 

I deeply respect Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard for their services to our country and for the amazing campaigns they have run. When I have more time, I hope to come around to writing about my thoughts about them and how I came to my decision to not endorse them. I see bright futures for them yet in U.S. politics and I really do hope they run for office again. But not now and not for the Presidency. It really is Bernie Sanders’s time. We need Bernie Sanders to be President.

 

I officially endorse Bernie Sanders for President in 2020. I will do what I can, given the constraints of my own personal abilities and circumstances, to help him win the Presidency. My hope is that in the coming days of the Sanders campaign and the coming years of a Sanders Presidency, this country will come to embody the deeply humanistic slogan that has been used for Sanders’s campaign: Not me. Us.