2016 Presidential and Senate Predictions: November 7

November 7 2016: My original hope was to have predictions for all 50 states and interesting U.S. Senate races up by November 7.  Because of my lack of a working laptop, I wasn’t able to complete this, so I only completed battleground states and a few other states of interest (such as all three states I’ve lived in: California, Oklahoma, and Texas), as well as all the important Senate races.  Also, because I started this document on November 6, all the RCP polling numbers are from that date, though I doubt they would’ve changed much in the intervening day.

 

For the Presidential race: Clinton wins Colorado, Florida, Maine-2, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, and finishes with 308 electoral votes.

 

For the U.S. Senate races: Democrats hold Nevada and flip Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, for a gain of 6 seats and 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.

 

Alabama

 

No predictions

 

Alaska

 

No predictions

 

Arizona

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.3 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
As recently as last week, Clinton looked like she could win this state.  Arizona has early voting and there’s been lots of it, which to me means that Clinton can narrow the gap, but not close it all the way.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
John McCain: 49.5 percent John McCain: 52 percent John McCain:  percent
Ann Kirkpatrick: 39.5 percent Ann Kirkpatrick: 47 percent Ann Kirkpatrick:  percent
All others: 11 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
This is one of those races where Democrats smelled blood but ultimately the prey was too healthy and strong, and got away.  

 

Arkansas

 

No predictions
California

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 54.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 32.0 percent Donald Trump: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.7 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
I think at one point Trump said he could make California competitive?  Yeah right.  

 

Colorado

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.4 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.3 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Colorado was one of two states (along with Virginia) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump did take a small lead in the middle of the fall and quickly lost it, as Colorado returned to being a critical foothold in Clinton’s path to victory.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Michael Bennet: 48.2 percent Michael Bennet: 55 percent Michael Bennet:  percent
Darryl Glenn: 40.8 percent Darryl Glenn: 44 percent Darryl Glenn:  percent
All others: 11.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Much like in the Presidential race, this was one of those coulda-beens for the Republicans that just failed to materialize.  A big part of it was because no strong Republican candidates emerged.  

 

Connecticut

 

No predictions

 

Delaware

 

No predictions

 

District of Columbia

 

No predictions

 

Florida

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.6 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 46.4 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that screwed over Democrats in 2000 may well do the same for Republicans this year.  While Trump currently holds a very small lead, early voting and Clinton’s superior ground game will put her over the top.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Marco Rubio: 48.6 percent Marco Rubio: 51 percent Marco Rubio:  percent
Patrick Murphy: 45.4 percent Patrick Murphy: 48 percent Patrick Murphy:  percent
All others: 6.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Despite a glimmer of hope for Murphy late in the game, Rubio has led all cycle and can confidently predict a slim victory.  Murphy is my most despised Democratic Senate candidate this cycle and I am shedding no tears for his political demise.  

 

Georgia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.2 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 44.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 6.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Along with Arizona, Georgia is an emerging swing state that Clinton maybe could’ve grabbed this time, but ultimately probably won’t.  There’s been lots of early voting, and Clinton could benefit enough from it to put in a close finish.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Johnny Isakson: 50.4 percent Johnny Isakson: 54 percent Johnny Isakson:  percent
Jim Barksdale: 39.4 percent Jim Barksdale: 45 percent Jim Barksdale:  percent
All others: 10.2 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Isakson is already sitting right at 50 percent, and Trump is creating a sort of upward drag that’s keeping him there.  Barksdale would have to knock him out right in November because a January runoff (which could happen, though I’m not predicting it) wouldn’t see the kind of Democratic turnout Barksdale would need to win.  

 

Hawaii

 

No predictions

 

Idaho

 

No predictions

 

Illinois

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 49.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 58 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 37.5 percent Donald Trump: 40 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 13.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
A solid win for Clinton’s “home” state.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Tammy Duckworth: 48.0 percent Tammy Duckworth: 55 percent Hillary Clinton:
Mark Kirk: 34.7 percent Mark Kirk: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 17.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Kirk has been dead man walking all this cycle, and he’s still that way as he walks into Election Night.  This will be the easiest Democratic win tonight.  

 

Indiana

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.0 percent Donald Trump: 57 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that effectively gave Trump the Republican nomination will stay red and stick with him tonight.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Todd Young: 42.7 percent Evan Bayh: 50 percent Todd Young:  percent
Evan Bayh: 42.0 percent Todd Young: 49 percent Evan Bayh:  percent
All others: 15.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
When Bayh first got into the race, he made a big show of force: money!!  Poll numbers!!  Republicans weren’t so easily deterred, and they were right: what was once a safe Bayh win is now a tight Todd lead, but sparse polling makes it hard to say for sure.  My gut says that Bayh still manages to pull out a very narrow win, despite the headwinds he faces from Trump.  

 

Iowa

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 41.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Iowa has been the one battleground state that Trump has had his tentacles wrapped around all cycle, and he’ll probably finish with a modest win.  It is annoying that Clinton hasn’t been able to keep this farm-and-labor Midwestern state in the Democratic column, when I’m pretty sure a more populist Democrat like Bernie Sanders would’ve carried it comfortably.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Chuck Grassley: 56.3 percent Chuck Grassley: 58 percent Chuck Grassley:  percent
Patty Judge: 34.0 percent Patty Judge: 41 percent Patty Judge:  percent
All others: 9.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
There was some buzz that Judge could give Grassley the race of his career.  Instead, it looks like he’ll win by about 20 points instead of his usual 30.  

 

Kansas

 

No predictions

 

Kentucky

 

No predictions

 

Louisiana

 

No predictions

 

Maine

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 44.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 39.5 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 16.5 percent All others: 3 percent All others:
Maine is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district and Trump is leading in Maine’s rural, more conservative Second District, 41.5-41.0.  Trump has managed to keep things reasonably competitive here, but lacking a formidable ground game in a state that’s been largely ignored, I predict Trump will fall short in both ME-2 and in the state as a whole.  

 

Maryland

 

No predictions

 

Massachusetts

 

No predictions

 

Michigan

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.4 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.6 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Trump made a lot of noise and really tried to turn this long-time blue state red, but like so much else he says and does, it will mean nothing in the end.  Still, Trump did have reason to think he could be competitive in an industrial state that is getting sick of establishment corporatist Democrats like Clinton.  This is another one of those states that Bernie Sanders would have quickly taken off the table.  

 

Minnesota

 

No predictions

 

Mississippi

 

No predictions

 

Missouri

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 49.5 percent Donald Trump: 54 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 40.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 44 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Back in the heady days when Clinton looked like a sure winner, there was some murmuring that Clinton could maybe put this state into her expanded field of play.  But no, Trump gets a comfortable win here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Roy Blunt: 46.8 percent Jason Kander: 50 percent Roy Blunt:  percent
Jason Kander: 45.5 percent Roy Blunt: 49 percent Jason Kander:  percent
All others: 7.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Alright, I’m gonna go all out with this crazy prediction: Kander wins by a hair.  I’m calling it.  Kander has run the superior campaign that centers around his biography and personality rather than partisan alignments, and I think he can really overcome those Trumpian headwinds.  

 

Montana

 

No predictions

 

Nebraska

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 56 percent Donald Trump: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 39 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Nebraska is special: it splits its electoral vote by Congressional district.  Clinton has made a play for Nebraska’s Second District, which includes the relatively friendly Omaha, but the one and only poll of that has Trump still leading there 49-40.  Clinton will not win NE-2 and she’ll get swamped statewide.  

 

Nevada

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.0 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
A late Trump surge has given him hope that this could be the state he uses to pierce Clinton’s firewall, but alas, according to the gods of early voting, it is not to be.  Early voting has been very favorable to Democrats and Trump may well have already lost this state before Election Day.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Catherine Cortez Masto: 46.7 percent Catherine Cortez Masto: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Joe Heck: 46.3 percent Joe Heck: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 7.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
What a reversal of fortune.  Heck was leading for a long ass time before a late Cortez Masto surge in the second half of October.  Now it’s effectively tied, but as Trump goes, so goes Heck.  The same early voting upward draft that carries Clinton to a small victory will do the same for Cortez Masto.  

 

New Hampshire

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 43.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.7 percent Donald Trump: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
The state that gave Trump his first win in the primaries might now be his best chance of piercing Clinton’s firewall, as he’s benefitted from a late surge here and there’s no pesky early voting like there is in Nevada.  But Clinton has retaken the lead in the last few polls, and it’s really hard for me to imagine Trump actually winning here.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Kelly Ayotte: 47.1 percent Maggie Hassan: 50 percent Kelly Ayotte:  percent
Maggie Hassan: 45.6 percent Kelly Ayotte: 49 percent Maggie Hassan:  percent
All others: 7.3 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Ayotte’s and Hassan’s fortunes have been seemingly tied to Trump’s and Clinton’s.  While Ayotte has done a pretty good job of swimming against the tide of Trump, Clinton bombarded New Hampshire with attention in the closing week of the campaign.  This was a really hard race for me to call – it’s probably the closest Senate race in the nation – but in the end, I think that Clinton machine is going to deliver a very tiny win to Hassan.  

 

New Jersey

 

No predictions

 

New Mexico

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 45.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 42 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 14.4 percent All others: 5 percent All others:
Gary Johnson is polling at 9.3 percent, which accounts for the outsize All others percentage.  I think Johnson will still finish relatively strong here, but Clinton will carry the state comfortably.  

 

New York

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton: 60 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 34 percent Donald Trump: 38 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 15 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
So much for Trump’s vow to make his and Clinton’s shared home state competitive.  Solid blue state.  

 

North Carolina

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 46.5 percent Donald Trump: 50 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 45.5 percent Hillary Clinton: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
North Carolina has early voting, but it hasn’t been favorable to the Democrats.  I would think that Clinton had a really good chance of flipping this state, especially with the changing demographics and all that.  In the end, Trump will still pull off a narrow win.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Richard Burr: 47.0 percent Richard Burr: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Deborah Ross: 45.0 percent Deborah Ross: 49 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 8.0 percent All others: 0 percent All others:
This has been a pretty frustrating race for me to watch.  Aside from Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Ross is probably the most liberal Senate candidate in this cycle.  She did hold a small average lead at the end of September and she’s grabbed leads in polls here and there, but in the end, the rather complacent Burr will probably still squeeze into a tight win.  

 

North Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Ohio

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 45.8 percent Donald Trump: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 42.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 11.9 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Along with Iowa, this has been Trump’s best battleground state the whole cycle, and like Iowa and Michigan, it has a lot of those blue collar industrial workers who would gravitate toward Trump over Clinton.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Rob Portman: 53.8 percent Rob Portman: 56 percent Rob Portman:  percent
Ted Strickland: 35.5 percent Ted Strickland: 43 percent Ted Strickland:  percent
All others: 10.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Strickland was a very promising, old school populist-type Democrat.  The Republicans annihilated his campaign early on.  It’s really sad to see how his campaign has dwindled this way.  Ohio really has not been kind to downballot Democrats as of late.  

 

Oklahoma

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average* Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 53 percent Donald Trump: 68 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 29 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 18 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
In my former state, I can’t see either Clinton or Libertarian Gary Johnson doing particularly well.  A big win for Trump.  

 

Oregon

 

No predictions

 

Pennsylvania

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.2 percent Hillary Clinton: 51 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 44.3 percent Donald Trump: 48 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 9.5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Ah, the Keystone State – the state that Republicans always dump a ton of money into thinking they can win it, only to… not.  Pennsylvania has no early voting, so that kinda helps Trump, but in the end It’s still going to be the same Lucy-holds-the-football state that falls in line with the Democrats.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Katie McGinty: 45.0 percent Katie McGinty: 52 percent Katie McGinty:  percent
Pat Toomey: 43.0 percent Pat Toomey: 47 percent Pat Toomey:  percent
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Of all the “tossup” Senate races, this (and Wisconsin, I guess) has been the best for Democrats.  Toomey is as corporatist and pro-Wall Street as it gets, and his victory in 2010 was essentially a fluke, helped along by the Republican wave that year.  He’s been assiduously working to prop up a moderate image to ensure that his 2010 victory isn’t a fluke, but in the end, the Clinton/Democratic headwins will be too strong for him to overcome.  

 

Rhode Island

 

No predictions

 

South Carolina

 

No predictions

 

South Dakota

 

No predictions

 

Tennessee

 

No predictions

 

Texas

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 50.0 percent Donald Trump: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 38.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.0 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Despite increasingly insistent murmurings that Clinton could win here, bolstered by a number of polls showing Trump’s lead in the low single digits, my own state of Texas is unlikely to be carried by anyone other than Trump.  I do think Clinton will post the best showing any Democrat’s seen here for a long time, largely because of Latino voters activated by Trump.  For the record, Green Party’s Jill Stein, whom I’m voting for, is currently polling at 2.0 percent, well below the 12.0 points separating Clinton from Trump.  

 

Utah

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 37.4 percent Donald Trump: 36 percent Hillary Clinton:
Hillary Clinton: 27.0 percent Hillary Clinton: 31 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 35.6 percent All others: 33 percent All others:
Why the massive 35.6 percent for All others?  Evan McMullin, the independent running as the traditional Republican, who’s hoping that a win of Utah’s 6 electoral votes will put him in the running for a decision that will be made in the House of Representatives.  McMullin accounts for 25.0 out of that 35.6 percent.  As much as I’m rooting for a McMullin win here because it would definitely make this election more exciting, sadly, McMullin has only led Trump in one survey, so it will still probably be a (close) Trump win.  

 

Vermont

 

No predictions

 

Virginia

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 47.3 percent Hillary Clinton: 52 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 42.3 percent Donald Trump: 46 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 10.4 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Virginia was one of two states (along with Colorado) that started the cycle as a supposed battleground but ended up being so consistently pro-Clinton that it became an integral part of her firewall.  Trump was never going to do well in this highly-educated state, and Clinton can easily count on it to help her win tonight.  

 

Washington

 

No predictions

 

West Virginia

 

No predictions

 

Wisconsin

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 46.8 percent Hillary Clinton: 53 percent Hillary Clinton:
Donald Trump: 40.3 percent Donald Trump: 45 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 12.9 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
There was massive rumbling earlier in the cycle that Trump, in his bid to make the industrial Midwest competitive, could put Wisconsin into play.  But come on, really?  I say no.  

 

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Russ Feingold: 47.0 percent Russ Feingold: 51 percent Russ Feingold:  percent
Ron Johnson: 44.3 percent Ron Johnson: 48 percent Ron Johnson:  percent
All others: 8.7 percent All others: 1 percent All others:  percent
Feingold is perhaps the most valuable candidate, in terms of his liberal-ness, running for Senate this cycle.  Meanwhile, Johnson was for this cycle what Rick Santorum was in 2006: an incumbent Republican who got in during a wave year who has since been too conservative for his light blue state and has lagged significantly behind his Democratic challenger the entire year.  Then the race unexpectedly narrowed in the last month and Democrats went into a panic.  I still say Feingold pulls off a win.  It will be narrower than one would have predicted a few months ago, but a win’s a win and I look forward to Feingold’s return to the Senate.  

 

Wyoming

 

No predictions

 

* No RCP average was available, so I put down the results of the most recent poll on RCP instead.

Political Endorsements for 2016 Election Cycle

San Francisco Mayor: Amy Farah Weiss (Result: Lost)

TX-30: Barbara Mallory Caraway (Result: Lost)

MN-2: Angie Craig

President of the United States: Bernie Sanders (Result: Lost)

State’s Attorney, Cook County, Illinois: Kim Foxx (Result: Won)

IL-10: Nancy Rotering (Result: Lost)

Wisconsin Supreme Court: JoAnne Kloppenburg (Result: Lost)

FL-23: Timothy Canova (Result: Lost)

MD-8: Jamie Raskin (Result: Won)

California State Assembly District 47: Eloise Gomez Reyes

MD Senator: Donna Edwards (Result: Lost)

WI Senator: Russ Feingold

CA-17: Mike Honda

PA Senator: John Fetterman (Result: Lost)

WV-Governor: Jeff Kessler (Result: Lost)

OR-5: Dave McTeague (Result: Lost)

CA-44: Nanette Barragán

CA-46: Bao Nguyen

IA-1: Pat Murphy (Result: Lost)

NY-24: Eric Kingson (Result: Lost)

WA-7: Pramila Jayapal

NY-19: Zephyr Teachout

NV-4: Lucy Flores (Result: Lost)

FL-9: Susanna Randolph (Result: Lost)

MN-8: Rick Nolan

Austin Community College Board of Trustees Place 9: Julie Ann Nitsch

President of the United States: Jill Stein

I Endorse Jill Stein for President in 2016

I am supporting Jill Stein for President of the United States in the 2016 general election, and I will be voting for her on November 8.  Why?  Because I agree with her on most issues, and I share her belief that this country needs and deserves a strong, compassionate government that works proactively to help all Americans.   I supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, and Stein is easily the closest candidate ideologically to Sanders.  I have read her platform and while it’s pretty light on specifics, what is there is awesome – basically Bernie Sanders on steroids.

 

Stein has been the target of vicious criticism from Hillary Clinton supporters, who think that she’s going to take away enough left-leaning votes from Clinton to cost Clinton the election.  That is highly unlikely – not only is Clinton favored to win (even as the race is supposedly tightening in these last few days), but if she does lose, it won’t be because of Stein, who is taking too low a percentage of the vote to be the margin of difference.  In any case, the bottom line is, I’m not going to be the deciding vote.  Even if a bunch of other people think the same way and vote for Stein and throw the election to Donald Trump, I’m still not going to be the deciding vote.  In other words, I could vote for Clinton to “save us all” from Trump (as the histrionics usually go) and it would make no difference; Trump would still win.

 

Attacks on Stein have largely focused around three things:

 

  1. “Her proposals are unfeasible and not based in reality.” This is especially lodged against her centerpiece proposal to erase student debt through quantitative easing.  I accept that Stein’s understanding of quantitative easing is lacking and some of  her proposals in their current form are unworkable or lack specifics.  But her intentions and convictions are in the right place, which I think is more important than the details of campaign proposals which won’t be the exact same as final legislative outcomes anyway.
  2. “She is against vaccination and believes they contribute to autism.” This is False.  Moreover, as the President has almost no control over vaccination policies in schools, this is largely irrelevant to the office she’s running for.
  3. “She thinks that Wi-Fi damages people’s brains”. This is a somewhat stronger claim than the autism charge, but it’s been blown way out of proportion.  Again, I fail to see how this is relevant to decisions that Stein will actually be making as President.

 

You might be wondering, why not vote for Hillary Clinton?  Well, I can’t type up my own long list right now, so I’ll borrow someone else’s that encompasses my own and more.  Please read “The Definitive, Encyclopedic Case For Why Hillary Clinton is the Wrong Choice”, for, well, the definitive case against Hillary Clinton from the left.

 

For the record, Hillary Clinton is one of my least favorite politicians alive today (in any political party).  If Jill Stein were not running, I would not vote for Clinton; I would either vote for another leftist candidate or abstain from voting in that race altogether.  The only thing I look forward to with regard to Clinton is a speedy end to her political career, and I refuse to do anything to contribute to it.  That said, in the unlikely event that Clinton governs in a very liberal fashion as President, I will consider voting for her if she runs for reelection in 2020.

 

I encourage all of my fellow leftists and former Bernie Sanders supporters to join me in supporting Jill Stein for President!

November 3 2016 Update

Hello all.  I haven’t posted any new entries lately and I won’t be posting too many for some time.  The main reason is because I am currently without a working computer, so my computer time is restricted to two hours a day at the local public library.  There’s a lot I want to write about but not much opportunity to do it.

I do want to write a brief bit about who I’m supporting in the upcoming elections, and there is one ambitious thing I want to try to get done before the elections on November 8.  Remember how during the Presidential primaries I made predictions on the results (and got quite a few right or pretty damn close)?  Well, I want to try to do the same thing for the Presidential election in every state this general election, as well as for the competitive U.S. Senate races.  It’s going to be a lot of work to get done if I only have five more days and just two hours a day on the computer, but I want to give it a shot.  Stay tuned!

August 30 2016 Florida Democratic Primary Elections

I’m announcing endorsements for three liberal Democrats running for Congress in Florida.  The primary is tomorrow, August 30.  The candidates are:

  1. Representative Alan Grayson, running for U.S. Senate
  2. Susannah Randolph, running for U.S. House from FL-9
  3. Tim Canova, running for U.S. House from FL-23

I’m going to follow up by saying that I don’t expect any of these three candidates to win their primaries.  Sad, I know.

I have to say something about Alan Grayson specifically.  Grayson has long been a progressive champion and he speaks to political issues clearly and from the heart.  He’s a loud and proud advocate for the idea of government taking an active role to help those in need.  In his own way, he’s one of the best communicators for the liberal cause I’ve ever seen.  And his talking about the dangers of drone strikes in the Middle East, when few others in DC will, alone makes him incredibly valuable to have in Congress.

Unfortunately, he does have a tendency to allow himself and his personal life to get in his own way.  Late last month he was hit with allegations of physically abusing his ex-wife (which both he and their eldest daughter deny), and to compound that, there was a very tense interaction between him and reporter Edward-Isaac Dovere.  The impact of the video has been overblown, I think, but it’s still not a great look for Grayson.  I don’t understand why he has to be such an aggressive and confrontational person in demeanor.  Being a strong liberal doesn’t mean that you have to be difficult in interpersonal interactions.  As much as I love Grayson when it comes to his politics and his rhetoric, these sort of antics make it harder for me to have good feelings about him – and they needlessly take away from what would be his advantage on the actual issues.

In any case, what was once a close race between him and his Democratic opponent, servile corporatist Representative Patrick Murphy, is now looking like a Murphy blowout.  Murphy has sided with Wall Street interests in wanting to loosen regulations, and with the fossil fuel industries in supporting the Keystone XL pipeline.  His interest in continued service in Congress seems to begin and end with how much he can do for various big corporations.  Even if Murphy weren’t such an obviously conservative and pro-business Democrat, I would still think we badly need Grayson to win the primary and stay in elected office, for the aforementioned reasons.  But with Murphy being such a terrible Democrat to have around, the need for Grayson to beat him in the primary is even greater.

Unfortunately, it looks like that in one round, we’ll both lose Grayson and get Murphy.  If Patrick Murphy is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate from Florida, I will not support him in the general election, and I’ll be glad to see his political career end, even if it’s at the hands of the Republican nominee.

2016 Presidential Primaries Predictions: June 7

Here are my Presidential predictions for the Presidential primaries and caucuses on June 7 2016.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

As always, the three key factors in a Democratic race are 1. How many of the voters are black, 2. How many of the voters are young, and 3. Whether it’s an open, semi-closed, or closed contest.

Another factor that may affect the results on the Democratic side is how big the All Others vote is.  For all the states except California, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are the only names on the ballot, so All Others will be limited to write-ins or “uncommitted”.  For California, there are five other Democrats running who are not Sanders or Clinton, and I suspect they would hurt Sanders more.

No Daily Kos Elections review that I could find, but I did come across a county-by-county prediction for the Democratic primary in California specifically, that you can see in the California section below.  I will post county predictions for the Democratic primary in California only.

As for the Republicans, since Donald Trump’s remaining opponents dropped out, he’s been getting anywhere from 61 to 77 percent of the vote, not the 90 percent I originally imagined.  I guess there’s a stronger and more persistent anti-Trump contingent than I thought.  I predict he’ll get a similar range of results in most of today’s elections.

California

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 48 percent Bernie Sanders: 50 percent Bernie Sanders:
Bernie Sanders: 46 percent Hillary Clinton: 47 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 6 percent All others: 3 percent All others:
Percentage black: 6.67 percent (28th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

This one is a difficult one for me to predict, just because things are getting so close.  Sanders has been crisscrossing this state like crazy the last two weeks.  He’s pulling even with Clinton as the two camps are aligning along generational rather than racial lines.  Old people of any race are solidly supporting Clinton, and young people of any race are solidly lining up behind Sanders.  So the low black percentage aside, black percentage may not even matter anymore if Sanders can do relatively well among them.  Sanders is also polling just behind Clinton among Latinos and possibly ahead of her among Asians.

Daily Kos user Alibguy posted this very detailed county-by-county breakdown of the California race, predicting Clinton winning by 10 points statewide.  However, his analysis is predicated on strong and reliable support for Clinton from Latinos and Asians, which is not a given, especially the Asian part.  From what I’ve seen in polling, Sanders is only slightly behind among Latinos and is tied or ahead among Asians.  As I said earlier, race is becoming less important than age.

Ultimately, this is going to be a very close and hard-fought contest.  I’m giving it to Sanders because 1. wishful thinking, as a Sanders win in my (original) home state would be very personal to me, 2. Sanders is making inroads among racial groups that have been thought to be pro-Clinton, and 3. this is a semi-closed primary where Sanders-friendly independents can vote, and there’s been a massive surge of newly registered voters.  But I think it’ll be very close.  Right now I have it as Sanders 50-47-3, but it could well be Sanders 49-48-3 or some other combination in that range.

Five Democrats not named Sanders or Clinton are also running, which is why I have All others at a relatively high 3 percent.

Pro-Sanders counties: far northern counties, Sierra Nevada counties, Marin, San Francisco

Pro-Clinton counties: Central Valley counties, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Ventura

Swing counties: Alameda, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 56 percent Donald Trump: 62 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 44 percent All others: 38 percent All others:
There is a sort of latent hostility to Trump in California, even among its Republicans.  Trump will get 62 by virtue of being the presumptive nominee, but I do think either Ted Cruz or John Kasich could have potentially beaten him here.

Montana

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Bernie Sanders: 77 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 23 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 0.67 percent (50th in the nation)

Contest type: open primary

The available polling I found on RCP was useless, and by useless I mean that the tested candidates included Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden.  So I’m just going off of the facts that Sanders has comfortably won all the other rural white Western states, this is an open primary, and this is literally the least black state in the nation.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Donald Trump: 66 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 34 percent All others:
Trump doesn’t do well in the Mountain West.  He got 64 percent in Oregon, which is the closest rural-ish state that voted after Indiana, so I’ll arbitrarily tack on two points to give Trump 66 here.

New Jersey

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Hillary Clinton: 58 percent Hillary Clinton: 59 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 37 percent Bernie Sanders: 40 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 5 percent All others: 1 percent All others:
Percentage black: 14.46 percent (15th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

This is a typical solidly pro-Clinton state: an establishment, machine politics kind of state with lots of blacks and Latinos.  Solid victory for Clinton.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Donald Trump: 61 percent Donald Trump: 82 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 39 percent All others: 18 percent All others:
This strikes me as a state where Trump would do very well, given his dominance in surrounding Northeastern states and neighboring New York.

New Mexico

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Hillary Clinton: 54 percent Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders: 45 percent Bernie Sanders:
All others: 1 percent All others:
Percentage black: 2.97 percent (39th in the nation)

Contest type: closed primary

A poll from February had Clinton leading Sanders 47-33, which isn’t that much given that it was back in February, and it also meant a ton of undecideds.  This is a tricky contest to predict.  On one hand, there is a low black population, which favors Sanders.  A high Latino population, but Latinos aren’t as monolithic as blacks are.  Sanders has been making some inroads among Latinos elsewhere and, as I like to remind people, he did narrowly win Latinos in Illinois.  Of course, Latinos in New Mexico may not be like Latinos in Illinois, but they’re not really like Latinos in any other state, for that matter.  So all that talk about how Clinton won big among Latinos in Arizona (did she? There were no exit polls there) and Texas may not be relevant here.  Finally, there is a large Native American population here, and while it’s not necessarily clear whether or not Sanders has been winning big among Native Americans elsewhere (again, results in Arizona only hint inconclusively that he lost among Native Americans), Sanders has definitely been reaching out to Native Americans in a way that few other Presidential candidates in the last thirty years have.

On the other hand, Clinton does still have an overall advantage among Latinos, even if it’s often overstated, and this is a closed primary.  So in the end, I think Clinton will win, but by a modest margin.  I could pick any number in the low or mid-50s for Clinton but I’ll go with 54 percent cuz that’s what I gave Trump as well.  That said, I think Sanders could potentially surprise here and make it even closer, if not outright win.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No recent polling available Donald Trump: 54 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 46 percent All others:
One poll from February had Ted Cruz narrowly leading Trump.  This state is heavily Latino and Trump insulted its popular Governor, so I can’t imagine him doing even moderately well here.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he failed to break 50 percent.

North Dakota

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Bernie Sanders: 80 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 20 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 1.08 percent (46th in the nation)

Contest type: open caucus

It’s an open caucus in a rural, white, Midwestern state that has no voter registration system.  What more does Sanders need?  Blow her outta the water, Bernie.

South Dakota

Democratic Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Bernie Sanders: 68 percent Bernie Sanders:
Hillary Clinton: 32 percent Hillary Clinton:
All others: 0 percent All others:
Percentage black: 1.14 percent (45th in the nation)

Contest type: semi-closed primary

The poor Dakotas just aren’t getting any polling love.  Well, the demographics are similar to neighboring North Dakota, but it’s a semi-closed primary, so the margins won’t be as gaudy as in North Dakota.  I’m still expecting and hoping for a big Sanders win here.

Republican Party

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
No polling available Donald Trump: 62 percent Donald Trump:
All others: 38 percent All others:
Trump has generally done relatively poorly in the rural Midwest, so I’m giving him a relatively low percentage here.