2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries Predictions: February 11

Here are my predictions for the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses on February 11 2020.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

New Hampshire

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions Results
Bernie Sanders: 28.7 percent Bernie Sanders: 30 percent  
Pete Buttigieg: 21.3 percent Pete Buttigieg: 20 percent  
Amy Klobuchar: 11.7 percent Amy Klobuchar: 15 percent  
Elizabeth Warren: 11.0 percent Elizabeth Warren: 12 percent  
Joe Biden: 11.0 percent Joe Biden: 11 percent  
Andrew Yang: 3.7 percent Andrew Yang: 4 percent  
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.3 percent Tulsi Gabbard: 3 percent  
Tom Steyer: 1.7 percent Tom Steyer: 2 percent  
Deval Patrick: 1.0 percent Deval Patrick: 1 percent  
Michael Bennet: 0.3 percent Michael Bennet: 1 percent  
All others: 6.3 percent All others: 1 percent  
I actually think the results will largely reflect the polling averages, with some shifts in the most recent trends that will enlarge the differences between the various candidates.  For Sanders, he’s getting a late but modest bump that pushes him away from second-place Buttigieg.  Buttigieg enjoyed a surge after his kinda-win in the Iowa caucuses but it has tapered off since the February 7 debate where he took a lot of incoming fire, so I foresee a slight dip for him.  Klobuchar is having a surge (which baffles me personally, but oh well) and she’s probably picking up some support that’s leaving Buttigieg, so she will probably outperform her polling.  Everyone else is just sort of languishing – does anyone even remember that Warren is running, and are people still taking Biden seriously as a contender?  Yang and Gabbard were probably counting on New Hampshire as the high-water marks of their campaigns as they were polling around the 5 or 6 percent area a few weeks ago, but their support has also dipped down a bit, probably from voters leaving them for Sanders.  

 

92nd Academy Awards: Predictions and Choices

February 9 Note: The following entry is incomplete.  Only the ranking for Best Picture is complete.

 

Here are my preferences and comments for the top eight categories for the 92nd Academy Awards in a table format.  For the first time since, I believe, the 85th Academy Awards (for movies released in 2012), I was not able to watch all the nominees for the Academy Award for Best Picture prior to the ceremony, which is today, February 9 2019.  There were four main reasons for me not being able to do so: 1. The ceremony having been moved up to earlier in February as opposed to the last Sunday in February, when it used to be, 2. A lot going on in my own personal life that kept me from watching more movies, 3. The Irishman and Marriage Story were not given a very wide theatrical release, 4. Problems with my laptop that make it difficult for me to use the Internet.  So for this year, given that I haven’t seen four of the nine Best Picture nominees, which also produced a lot of the nominees for the other categories, there are a lot of cases where I’ve only seen one movie in a given category, in which case my preference ranking isn’t really meaningful.

 

Nonetheless, for what it’s worth, I’ll put the movies and performances I haven’t seen at the bottom, separate from the actual rankings.  For the predictions, rather than try to formulate my own as in previous years, I just put GoldDerby’s; you can find all their predictions here

 

Best Picture

Nominees by alphabetical order (the titles in bold were the ones I watched before the nominations were announced on January 13) Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
Ford v Ferrari Parasite  
The Irishman 1917
Jojo Rabbit Joker
Joker Ford v Ferrari
Little Women Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story Haven’t seen:

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Marriage Story

1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite  
 

 

Best Director

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
 
 

 

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
   
 

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees by alphabetical order Nominees by my preference, from highest to lowest GoldDerby’s predicted winner
     
   
   
   
 
 

 

2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries Predictions: February 3

Here are my predictions for the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses on February 3 2020.  I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.

Iowa

RealClearPolitics Polling Average Predictions (for Final Alignment) Results
Bernie Sanders: 23.0 percent Bernie Sanders: 29 percent Bernie Sanders:
Joe Biden: 19.3 percent Joe Biden: 20 percent  
Pete Buttigieg: 16.8 percent Pete Buttigieg: 19 percent  
Elizabeth Warren: 15.5 percent Elizabeth Warren: 18 percent  
Amy Klobuchar: 9.0 percent Amy Klobuchar: 6 percent  
Andrew Yang: 3.3 percent Andrew Yang: 5 percent  
Tom Steyer: 3.0 percent Tom Steyer: 1 percent  
All others: 2.5 percent All others: 2 percent All others:
Bernie Sanders benefits from being atop the polls and having a very powerful ground game. Joe Biden stands to benefit from picking up some of Amy Klobuchar’s supporters where Klobuchar fails to make viability, but his ground game is so weak that he doesn’t gain much from where he currently is in the polls. Pete Buttigieg’s and Elizabeth Warren’s relatively strong ground games allow them to improve just a little bit from their current poll standings, as their support has stagnated. Amy Klobuchar’s and Andrew Yang’s late surges are tempered by failure to reach viability in many precincts.  

 

I Endorse Bernie Sanders for President in 2020

Bernie Sanders has been literally my favorite living politician since all the way back in 2005, when I first really learned about him in Matt Taibbi’s excellent and highly recommended “Inside the Horror Show That Is Congress”. When Bernie Sanders announced he was going to run for President again in 2020, it seemed like a no-brainer that I would endorse him for the Presidency, as I did in 2016. But I have never been someone who wants to jump into a decision on the single most important political office in the land until I have had a chance to hear from every candidate, and a chance to see how their campaigns play out over the course of the year or so between their announcements and when the first voting begins.

 

In particular, two other candidates stood out for me: Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang. At the beginning of the primary season, I had provisionally ranked Sanders, Gabbard, and Yang as my number one, two, or three candidates, and the only candidates I would be considering for my vote. Gabbard and Yang traded places over the course of the past year; at this point I would probably put Yang just slightly ahead of Gabbard. Sanders has always kept his place at the top for me. To be sure, I have had reason to find both pleasure and disappointment in all three candidates. But in the end, I have come to realize this: when possible, accept no substitutes.

 

What I have always looked for in candidates for any office are individuals who believe in the cause of an active, compassionate, and democratic government that will provide for the needs of all people in this country. That has been my guiding cause since I first became interested in politics as a teenager and I have always wanted to see politicians, especially Democratic politicians, who openly articulated the message of activist government as I would. Bernie Sanders has fulfilled this personal desire in running a campaign that has built a winning central message with three component principles that he and I both deeply believe in:

 

  1. Government, at all levels, must directly serve the basic needs and interests of all people, not just those who are already wealthy and well-connected.
  2. We individuals are all connected as one country and one society, and in both moral and practical terms, what affects one affects us all.
  3. Real political change happens from capturing hearts and minds, engaging with people on what’s important in this country, and mobilizing and leading them to do what’s necessary to make meaningful progress a reality.

 

My political dream has been to see a democratically accountable government – at federal, state, and local levels – that takes direct action to advance the general welfare of this country and all its people, and to see politicians openly and explicitly advocate for such. In Bernie Sanders, we have such a politician, and, with Sanders as President and with the aid of like-minded people in Congress and in state and local governments across the country, we have a new hope of creating such a government in the years to come.

 

I deeply respect Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard for their services to our country and for the amazing campaigns they have run. When I have more time, I hope to come around to writing about my thoughts about them and how I came to my decision to not endorse them. I see bright futures for them yet in U.S. politics and I really do hope they run for office again. But not now and not for the Presidency. It really is Bernie Sanders’s time. We need Bernie Sanders to be President.

 

I officially endorse Bernie Sanders for President in 2020. I will do what I can, given the constraints of my own personal abilities and circumstances, to help him win the Presidency. My hope is that in the coming days of the Sanders campaign and the coming years of a Sanders Presidency, this country will come to embody the deeply humanistic slogan that has been used for Sanders’s campaign: Not me. Us.