Here are my Presidential predictions for the Presidential primaries on May 17 2016. I will add actual results and post-election commentary later.
As always, the three key factors in a Democratic race are 1. How many of the voters are black, 2. How many of the voters are young, and 3. Whether it’s an open, semi-closed, or closed contest.
Kentucky
Democratic Party
RealClearPolitics Polling Average* | Predictions | Results |
Hillary Clinton: 43 percent | Bernie Sanders: 51 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
Bernie Sanders: 38 percent | Hillary Clinton: 47 percent | Hillary Clinton: |
All others: 19 percent | All others: 2 percent | All others: |
Percentage black: 8.2 percent (24th in the nation)
Contest type: closed primary The last poll was from early March, and it showed that Clinton was holding a small lead even then. Would it have killed a pollster to run another poll in Kentucky? Given the demographics and the rural, working-class nature of the state, plus the fact that Sanders’s support in neighboring West Virginia could spread to eastern Kentucky, I’m gonna say Sanders wins here, but his margin is narrowed by the primary being closed. |
Oregon
Democratic Party
RealClearPolitics Polling Average* | Predictions | Results |
Hillary Clinton: 48 percent | Bernie Sanders: 55 percent | Hillary Clinton: |
Bernie Sanders: 33 percent | Hillary Clinton: 43 percent | Bernie Sanders: |
All others: 19 percent | All others: 2 percent | All others: |
Percentage black: 2.01 percent (41st in the nation)
Contest type: closed primary One recent-ish poll (from May 6 to 9) and it shows Sanders trailing Clinton significantly, with a large amount of undecideds. Almost everything about Oregon favors Sanders: demographics, enthusiasm shown by new voter registration, and the political climate being similar to that of neighboring Washington, where Sanders won big. There’s one caveat: this is a closed primary, so Sanders can’t count on independents to save him. This poll notwithstanding, I still sense a Sanders win given all of the above factors, but not by a terribly large margin. I took the 57 percent Sanders got in Wisconsin, a similarly “I wish Sanders had won bigger here given how liberal it’s supposed to be” state, and knocked off 2 points for it being a closed primary as opposed to Wisconsin’s open one. |
Republican Party
RealClearPolitics Polling Average* | Predictions | Results |
Donald Trump: 45 percent | Donald Trump: 62 percent | Donald Trump: |
All others: 55 percent | All others: 38 percent | All others: |
The last poll, which was in the field from May 6 to May 9 (i.e., when Trump’s competitors had all dropped out already) had Trump only hitting 45 percent. The same poll had Cruz and Kasich tied 14-14; so much for Kasich being the anointed Trump challenger in this state. Clearly, Trump is not particularly popular here.
Last week I overestimated how big Donald Trump would win by given that he no longer faces any challengers in the Republican primaries. Instead of Trump hitting the 90s, he was more in the 60s and 70s. Normally, I would say that another week without Republican competition would push his numbers in any given state to high 70s or low 80s. But Oregon seems particularly averse to Trump, and doesn’t seem inclined to lead the way on the coalescing of the party behind him. I’m predicting he hits only 62 percent here, which is his share from the last poll if you discount everyone besides Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. |
* No RCP average was available, so I put down the results of the most recent poll on RCP instead.